GBP/USD’s deeper than expected fall last week suggests that rebound from 1.3158 has completed at 1.3748 already. More importantly, down trend from 1.4248 is not over yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.3158 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3523 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3748.
In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 holds, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.
