EUR/AUD’s decline and break of 1.5559 support last week suggests that rebound from 1.5354 has completed with three waves up to 1.6223. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.5250/5354 support zone. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5837 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733
