US non-farm payrolls report is expected to show 488k job growth in March. Unemployment rate is expected to tick down further from 3.8% to 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to return to growth at 0.4% mom.
Looking at related data, ADP report showed 455k private job growth in the same month, which was strong. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped notably from 208.5k to 230.5k. The employment data from ISM indexes are not available yet.
Markets are pricing in more than 70% chance of a 50bps rate hike by Fed in May. Even a moderate miss in the headline NFP number is not going to alter such expectations much. On the other hand, solid wages growth would leave less room for the Fed doves to argue for a small hike.
Some previews on NFP:
