AUD/USD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 0.6680 low decisively, and hit as low as 0.6510. Initial bias is on the downside this week. Next target is 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. Break there will target 100% projection of 0.7660 to 0.6680 from 0.7135 at 0.6155. On the upside, above 0.6669 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 (2020 low) to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.5506.
In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still is not clearly impulsive. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.
