New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence index decrease slightly in April, dipping from -43.4 to -43.8. On the other hand, Own Activity Outlook improved from -8.5 to -7.6. A closer look at the details reveals that export intentions jumped from -8.9 to -1.5, while investment intentions remained unchanged at -6.8. Employment intentions rose from -4.6 to -2.4, and pricing intentions fell from 56.8 to 53.7. Cost expectations dropped from 86.4 to 84.2, and profit expectations declined from -33.9 to -37.7.
Inflation expectations decreased from 5.82 to 5.70, reaching the lowest level since March 2022. ANZ observed that the overall decline in inflation signals is consistent with RBNZ gradually gaining traction. However, the situation is far from resolved, as the proportion of firms experiencing high costs and intending to raise prices remains “problematically high”.
ANZ added: “The RBNZ will be encouraged to see the ongoing fall in the inflation indicators in the survey. While there’s still a way to go, inflation is set to continue easing over the year ahead, as they and we are forecasting.
“It’s important to note that the data does not represent a ‘surprise’ for the RBNZ; rather, it’s what they will be expecting to see if their forecasts are to come to fruition, with the OCR able to top out shortly.
“There are risks on both sides: inflation could get “stuck” north of the target band, or global markets could deliver a side-swipe, for example. But the overall message from this month’s survey is “on track.”
