EUR/USD’s pull back last week indicates short term topping at 1.1274, after hitting 1.1273 fibonacci level. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for deeper fall. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1011 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.1274 will resume larger up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.1011 will argue that larger correction is underway.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 is still expected to continue as long as 1.1011 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.1011 will bring deeper fall back to 1.0634 support next.
In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1141). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
