While EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.0911 was slightly stronger than expected, it settled back into established range. Outlook is unchanged and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0911 will resume the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0832 support. Sustained trading below there will target 1.0609/34 cluster support. However, firm break of 1.1064 minor resistance will argue that pull back from 1.1274 has completed, and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.0966) will bring deeper correction to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation.
In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1129). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
