EUR/CHF recovered to 0.9601 last week but reversed from there. Initial bias stays neutral this week and larger down trend is still in favor to continue. Break of 0.9513 support will confirm this bearish case and target 0.9407 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.9601 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 0.9646 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9839). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0421). Break of 1.00095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.
