GBP/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.2426 last week. The development argues that corrective rebound from 1.2036 has completed with three waves to 1.2426. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retesting 1.2036/68 support zone next. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.3141. On the upside, above 1.2307 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2458, suggests fall from 1.3141 is still in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.1417, even just as a corrective move.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.
