USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9111 continued last week and edged lower to 0.8629 last week. Nevertheless, with subsequent recovery, initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. Break of 0.8629 will resume the decline to retest 0.8551 key support level. However, break of 0.8819 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8551 are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the decline from 1.0146 (2022 high). Fall from 0.9243 is seen as the second leg for now. Strong support should be seen 0.8551 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 0.9111 resistance will argue that the third leg has started already, and target 0.9243.
In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.
