EUR/CHF’s correction from 0.9847 extended to as low as 0.9563 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.9721 resistance will argue that the correction has completed already, and turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9847. However, break of 0.9563 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9479.
In the bigger picture, while 55 D EMA (now at 0.9644) was breached, EUR/CHF rebounded strongly since then. Rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom should still be in progress. Break of 0.9847 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the rebound has completed.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
