EUR/CHF’s deep decline last week confirmed that rebound form 0.9209 has completed at 0.9579, ahead of 55 D EMA. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.9351, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9209 to 0.9579 at 0.9350, initial bias stays neutral first. Break of 0.9351 will target 0.9209 low next. However, break of 0.9497 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9579 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 0.9928 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
