USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9223 resumed by breaking through 0.8431 support, but quickly recovered after hitting 0.8399. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further fall is expected as long as 0.8540 resistance holds. Break of 0.8339 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9049 to 0.8431 from 0.8747 at 0.8365, and then 0.8332 low. However, firm break of 0.8540 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8747 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.9223 as the second leg. Strong support could be seen from 0.8332 to bring rebound. Yet, overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9243 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8332, however, will resume larger down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high).
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.
