GBP/USD edged lower to 1.2973 last week but recovered after drawing support from 1.3000 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2999). Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3102 resistance will argue that pullback from 1.3433 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained trading below 1.3000 will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2732.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3000 support holds, the up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3141 from 1.2298 at 1.4022. However, considering mild bearish divergence condition in D MACD, decisive break of 1.3000 will argue that a medium term top is already in place, and bring deeper fall back to 1.2664 support next.
In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. The strong break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.2811) is a sign of bullish trend reversal. Yet, break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 could just be part of a consolidation pattern.
. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3102 resistance will argue that pullback from 1.3433 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. However, sustained trading below 1.3000 will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2732.){kind=link}