AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6941 resumed last week and dived to as low as 0.6371. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.6348 support first. Firm break there will target 0.6269 support next. On the upside, above 0.6455 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006. More sideway trading could be seen above 0.6169, but overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6941 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6169 will resume the down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, even in case of deeper fall, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.
