GBP/JPY’s stronger than expected rebound and break of 55 D EMA last week argues that fall from 198.84 has completed at 189.31. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 198.94 resistance, as corrective pattern from 180.00 extends with another rising leg. On the downside, below 192.05 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 173.49).
