USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4791 extended lower last week and the development suggests that deeper correction is underway. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.3946 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.3942). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4378 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is in progress and possibly resuming. Next target is 61.8% projections of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270. While rejection by 1.4689 will delay the bullish case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 M EMA (1.3420) holds.
. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4378 resistance holds, in case of recovery.){kind=link}