EUR/JPY dipped to 154.77 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 158.19 resistance holds. Below 154.77 will target 154.40 key support. Firm break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 175.41 and target 152.11 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction. Next target will be 100% projection of 175.41 to 154.40 from 166.67 at 145.66.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.45).
