EUR/CHF’s extended decline last week and break of 0.9331 support indicates that corrective rebound from 0.9204 has already completed with three waves up to 0.9660. Initial bias stays on the downside for retesting 0.9204. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, break of 0.9408 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9600) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9928 to 0.9204 from 0.9660 at 0.8936.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 EMA (now at 0.9936) holds.
