We are getting mixed data from the US in the past couple of days, especially as it comes to Employment.
US ADP Private Employment data came in at +37,000 jobs added vs 115,000 Expected – A relatively large miss which may scare markets going towards the NFP number. The previous release was at 60K, and the May report was the lowest in 2 years.
The Private sector employment is getting hurt by interest rates that are still relatively high – the May 2024 report was showing an increase of 164,000 jobs.
Jerome Powell tends to take a close look at the evolution of private companies economic activity in the FED’s dual mandate of optimal Employment and inflation – let’s see how this situation evolves next month towards the pricing of cuts.
This report comes in as JOLTS Data beat expectations yesterday, with the data showing a rise of 191,000, coming in at 7.391M Job openings vs 7.10M Expectations.
Yesterday’s job data showed a decent beat that propelled markets in a risk-on session, equities closed green all around and the S&P found itself 10 points from the 6,000 Milestone, though came off the highs from the Futures overnight session.
It seems though that markets are already turning the page, rallying back as we approach the Services PMI release expected at 52, coming in about 5 minutes.
This ADP Report just gives more focus to the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report coming in on Friday.
DXY and S&P Intra-Day Charts
DXY 15m Chart
DXY 15M Chart, June 4, 2025. Source: TradingView
The Dollar rallied back strongly yesterday though intra-day charts are showing a Head & Shoulders pattern – we will see now if it gets rejected from the Services PMI Data, coming up.
S&P 500 15m Chart
S&P 15M Chart, June 4, 2025. Source: TradingView
