EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.7705 last week but failed to break through 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.7745 will solidify the case that fall from 1.8554 has completed as a corrective move. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On the downside, however, break of 1.7460 support will bring retest of 1.7245 instead.
In the bigger picture, with 55 W MACD staying well below signal line, 1.8554 is likely a medium term top already. Price actions from there are seen as a corrective pattern only. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is still expected to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6294) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
