EUR/JPY’s rally continued last week after interim retreat and there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 161.06 at 170.45. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 166.01 support holds, even in case of another retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 150.56).
