GBP/JPY’s corrective pattern from 199.96 continued last week and resumed after brief recovery. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 193.99 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 199.96 at 193.99). On the upside, above 196.95 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
. On the upside, above 196.95 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.){kind=link}