USD/JPY rose further to as high as 150.90 last week but reversed ahead of 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that whole rise from 139.87 might have already completed. Deeper fall should then be seen to 142.66 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 150.99 will resume the rebound to 151.22 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
