Silver (XAG/USD) Technical: Medium-Term Up Trend Remains Intact, Start of New Bullish Impulsive Leg

Silver (XAG/USD) has staged the expected rally of 7.1% from 18 June 2025 to hit the predefined resistance of US$39.08 (printed a 14-year high of US$39.53 on 23 July) before it staged a corrective decline of -8.39% to hit an intraday low of US$36.21 on 31 July 2025.

Let’s now examine its latest medium-term multi-week directional bias from a technical analysis perspective.

Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) medium-term trend as of 13 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)

The minor corrective decline from the 23 July 2025 high is likely to have ended, and Silver (XAG/USD) is likely in the process of shaping a potential new bullish impulsive upmove sequence within its medium-term and major uptrend phases.

Bullish bias with key medium-term pivotal support at US$37.00 and a clearance above US$39.53 sees the next medium-term resistances coming in at US$40.85 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel from 7 April 2025 low) and US$42.14/42.74 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of long-term secular ascending channel from March 2020 low)

Key elements

• The 31 July 2025 low of US$36.21 confluences with the 50-day moving average and the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 7 April 2025 low.
• The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit a bullish momentum condition and has not reached its overbought region (above 70 level).
• The relative strength chart of the Silver/Gold ratio has continued to trend steadily upwards since 4 August 2025, which suggests further medium-term outperformance of Silver against Gold.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

A break below the US$37.00 key support invalidates the bullish scenario to kickstart another corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term support at US$35.45, and below it triggers a deeper slide to test the US$34.13 long-term pivotal support.