Market movers today
In the EU, ongoing Brexit negotiations will be in focus today, where the UK’s Theresa May is set to have lunch with EU’s Jean-Claude Juncker.
In the US, an agreement on tax reform is moving closer, while the suspension of the US debt ceiling will expire on Friday.
In addition, the ongoing investigation on Trump may draw headlines today as well.
In Denmark, FX reserve data for November is due for release today. We do not expect Danmarks Nationalbank to have intervened in FX markets in November.
The rest of the week bring interesting data releases though with US non-farm payrolls, ISM non-manufacturing and German industrial production due. In the Scandi calendar, the Norges Bank Regional Network Report, Norwegian house price data and Swedish industrial production and orders are up for release.
This morning, we have published our semi-annual Big Picture including our updated economic outlook for the global economy (US, euro area, the UK, Japan, China and emerging markets). We think the global expansion is going to continue in coming years driven by continued strong consumer spending and a robust investment recovery. We look for inflation to stay fairly muted and central banks to withdraw stimulus only very gradually.
Selected market news
Headlines over the weekend were centred on the development in the ongoing investigation into US President Trump’s potential obstruction of justice. The political uncertainty in the US has clouded the skies over USD, which on the other hand looks set to receive a helping hand from the steady progress towards tax reform. On Friday, a vote on the tax reform in the Senate passed. Overall, however, the news did not move either EUR/USD or the US stock market significantly on Friday.
On Friday, Baker Hughes reported a small rise in the US oil rig count. US oil producers thus seem to be benefiting from the rise in oil prices in H2 by adding to production. Fundamentals in the oil market in general were in focus last week, where OPEC also agreed to extend production cuts for another nine months. Oil prices in the meantime have been relatively stable, with the price on Brent crude trading around the USD63/bbl level throughout much of last week
