As indicated by the Bollinger Bands width indicator, the EUR/USD market remained relatively subdued in February, with the indicator twice retreating towards its lower boundary.
However, price action over the past two sessions suggests renewed activity — the range formed between 11 and 17 February has been broken to the downside by sellers.
From a fundamental perspective, this move reflects a combination of factors, including:
- → Reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is planning to step down before the end of her term in October next year. This development is viewed as a bearish factor for the euro.
- → Minutes from the FOMC meeting showing that policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates. Opinions were divided, with some members even open to raising the Fed rate if inflation proves persistent. The prospect of a tighter Federal Reserve stance is supportive for the US dollar.
Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart
The recent bearish pressure has pushed EUR/USD back towards a key support level around 1.1777. Bears attempted to break below this level on 6 February but failed, resulting in a false breakout at point B.
While bulls may attempt a rebound from this support, the broader picture suggests that sellers currently hold a slight advantage in February, reflected in the following:
- → Price action has been forming a descending channel since 11 February (shown in red).
- → High C sits roughly halfway along the A→B bearish impulse. According to Fibonacci proportions, this is consistent with a bearish market structure.
- → Bulls have been unable to secure a foothold above key psychological levels — first above 1.2000 and subsequently above 1.1900.
If selling pressure persists, a decisive break below 1.1777 cannot be ruled out, which could in turn trigger a fresh surge in volatility.
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