Silver has come under notable pressure this week, slipping back below the $75 level as oil prices and the Dollar strengthen. The metal is now at risk of a deeper decline toward the March low near $60, especially if the rallies in oil and the Dollar continue to gather momentum.
The backdrop remains the evolving US–Iran situation. With talks cancelled and the ceasefire extended indefinitely, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Ongoing supply disruptions are keeping oil prices firm, with Brent holding above $106 and pushing toward $110. This sustained strength in energy markets is feeding directly into inflation expectations.
For Silver, the implication is clear. Higher oil prices are lifting inflation expectations, which in turn are pushing global interest rate expectations higher. Rather than benefiting from geopolitical risk, Silver is being weighed down by the “higher-for-longer” rate outlook, as rising yields and a stronger Dollar reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Technically, the near term outlook for Silver has deteriorated. The rejection ahead of the 38.2% retracement of 121.83 to 60.97 at 84.21 suggests that the rebound from 60.97 has likely completed at 83.04. The break below the near-term rising channel support adds further confirmation that downside momentum is building. This development signals that the corrective bounce from 60.97 low has ended and that a new leg lower may be underway.
Attention now turns to the 72.55 support level. Decisive break here would solidify the bearish case and open the path for a deeper decline. The next targets lie at the prior low of 60.97, with the psychological 60 level likely to come into focus.
