Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 159.54 will extend the fall from 160.58 short term top to 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 160.58 at 158.45. However, decisive break of 160.71 will confirm up trend resumption. That should push USD/JPY through 161.94 to 100% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 next.
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 155.13) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.
