The euro remains under pressure following weak macroeconomic data from the euro area and fresh signals that the European Central Bank is prepared to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Data released yesterday pointed to a deterioration in business activity across the eurozone’s largest economies. Weak readings from Germany and France heightened concerns about the pace of the region’s economic recovery.
Additional pressure came from comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde, which markets interpreted as more dovish than recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials. As a result, investors continue to scale back expectations for further policy tightening by the ECB.
Market participants will also focus today on Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index. Forecasts suggest the headline index may rise to 85.6 from 84.9 previously, while the Expectations Index is expected to increase to 85.0 from 83.8. Although an improvement in business sentiment could provide temporary support for the euro, investors are likely to assess the data against the broader backdrop of slowing economic activity across the euro area. Even if the figures improve, markets may view them as insufficient to alter the prevailing picture of economic cooling.
EUR/USD
Yesterday, sellers managed to break key support at 1.1400, pushing the pair to a fresh low for the year. A sustained move below 1.1400 could pave the way for a further decline towards the next support zone at 1.1310–1.1280. A move back above 1.1400–1.1420 would be the first indication that bearish pressure is easing.
Key events for EUR/USD:
- Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany Ifo Business Climate Index;
- Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel;
- Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US New Home Sales.
EUR/CAD
EUR/CAD has retreated from this year’s highs near 1.6200. Technical analysis suggests the pair may decline towards the 1.6100–1.6030 area, as a bearish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. Conversely, a break above resistance at 1.6270 could trigger a resumption of the uptrend towards 1.6350–1.6400.
Key events for EUR/CAD:
- Today at 14:15 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers;
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Manufacturing Sales;
- Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories.
Overall, pressure on the euro persists amid weak eurozone data and diverging monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. If the German data fail to improve investor sentiment, both EUR/USD and EUR/CAD may extend their declines. At the same time, stronger European data or a weaker US dollar could trigger a corrective recovery in the single currency.
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