EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8601 last week but failed to sustain below 0.8618 fibonacci level and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will now be mildly on the downside as long as 0.8686 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.8601 will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. However, break of 0.8686 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8728 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
