AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6864 resumed by breaking through 0.7026 last week. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.6921 at 0.7083. On the downside, below 0.6988 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
In the bigger picture, price action from 0.7277 medium term top is seen as developing into a correction to rise from 0.5913 only. While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while, before an eventual upside breakout.
In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It’s still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6848) holds.
