USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8205 extended to 0.7948 last week but recovered ahead of near term channel floor. Initial bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of the channel support (now at 0.7928) will solidify the case that rebound from 0.7603 has completed with three waves up to 0.8205. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7760 support next. On the upside, firm break of 0.8038 will bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 suggests rebound from 0.7603 is merely a corrective move, and the long term down trend is not complete yet. Break of 0.7603 will resume the down trend. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.8213 will indicate that USD/CHF is at least reversing the medium term trend, and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
 will solidify the case that rebound from 0.7603 has completed with three waves up to 0.8205. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7760 support next. On the upside, firm break of 0.8038 will bring stronger rebound.){kind=link}