US private-sector hiring slowed further in August, with ADP employment growth easing from a revised 46K in July to 38K, below 48K consensus and marking weakest increase since January. Goods-producing employment fell -10K, while services added 48K, leaving overall hiring positive but increasingly narrow.
Sector details reinforced softer picture. Manufacturing shed -17K jobs, while professional and business services lost -16K and trade, transportation and utilities fell -5K. Much of overall gain came from education and health services, which added 45K, alongside a 16K increase in leisure and hospitality. Hiring was also concentrated among large employers, which added 34K jobs, compared with just 3K at small firms and no net growth among medium-sized businesses.
Pay growth continued to cool gradually rather than collapse. Median base pay rose 3.2% y/y across workers, while gross pay increased 4.7%. For job-stayers, base pay growth held at 3.0%, while job-changers saw 4.7%. ADP said pay growth has been “decelerating for the past four years.” Overall, August report points to weakening private hiring momentum, with employment gains increasingly dependent on healthcare and a small number of larger employers.
Data Summary
| Indicator | August | July | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change | +38K | +46K | Slower |
| Goods-Producing Employment | -10K | — | Decline |
| Services Employment | +48K | — | Increase |
By industry
| Indicator | August |
|---|---|
| Manufacturing | -17K |
| Construction | +12K |
| Education & Health Services | +45K |
| Leisure & Hospitality | +16K |
| Professional & Business Services | -16K |
| Trade, Transportation & Utilities | -5K |
By establishment size
| Indicator | August |
|---|---|
| Large Establishments | +34K |
| Small Establishments | +3K |
| Medium Establishments | 0K |
Pay Summary
| Pay Measure | August |
|---|---|
| Median Base Pay, All Workers y/y | +3.2% |
| Median Gross Pay, All Workers y/y | +4.7% |
| Base Pay, Job-Stayers y/y | +3.0% |
| Base Pay, Job-Changers y/y | +4.7% |
| Gross Pay, Job-Stayers y/y | +4.4% |
| Gross Pay, Job-Changers y/y | +7.3% |
Key Takeaways
- US private employment growth slowed from a revised 46K to 38K in August, undershooting 48K consensus and marking weakest gain since January.
- Hiring was unusually concentrated, with education and health services adding 45K, more than total net private-sector increase.
- Manufacturing lost 17K jobs, while professional and business services shed 16K, pointing to weakness outside healthcare and leisure.
- Large employers accounted for 34K of total hiring, while small firms added just 3K and medium-sized employers were flat.
- Pay growth continued to moderate rather than collapse. ADP said wage growth has been “decelerating for the past four years.”
- Report strengthens evidence of softer private hiring ahead of Friday’s NFP, although wage data do not yet signal broad labor-market stress.
