- Geopolitics have boosted demand for physical and futures markets for gold.
- The US dollar is under pressure from diverging monetary policies.
The US dollar has been falling for four of the last five consecutive days. Investors expect the ECB to tighten monetary policy at its next meeting, with signals from Christine Lagarde that the cycle will continue. Rumours are circulating in the forex market that the Bank of Japan is choosing between a 50bp hike later this month and 3 consecutive 25-point increases at each of its next three meetings. This divergence in monetary policy is creating headwinds for the US dollar index.
Adding fuel to the EURUSD rally is the faster rise in European bond yields relative to US Treasuries. This increases their relative attractiveness and raises the prospect of capital flows from the US to Europe. In reality, however, the rise in yields is being driven partly by sell-offs in French and Italian debt amid budgetary concerns, and in German debt following the CDU’s defeat in the regional elections. Elevated political risks are therefore weighing on the euro.
Meanwhile, Brent crude’s rally towards $100 per barrel, against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East, risks fuelling inflation and prompting the Fed to tighten monetary policy. This would create an unfavourable environment for gold. However, gold’s supporters are not giving up. In August, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 650,000 ounces, marking the 22nd consecutive month of growth.
Goldman Sachs believes that gold is a hedge over the period of threats to the Fed’s independence, unorthodox government intervention in currency and debt markets, a ‘debasement trade’ and escalating fiscal problems. Amundi is increasing the proportion of gold in its portfolios, citing its affordability, liquidity and use as a risk-hedging instrument.
Société Générale believes that the conflict in the Middle East is not a negative factor for Gold over the long term. What began as a geopolitical shock has turned into a broad-based build-up of physical and futures positions, involving retail investors, professional asset managers and derivatives traders. The firm describes the precious metals market as bullish across the board.
The FxPro Analyst Team
