USD/CAD’s rise from 1.3730 continued last week and breached 1.4247 high. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 1.4247 will target 100% projection of 1.3480 to 1.4247 from 1.3730 at 1.4497. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.4153 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback first.
In the bigger picture, current upward momentum suggests that rise from 1.3480 is reversing whole fall from 1.4791 (2025 high). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290 will pave the way back to retest 1.4791 high. Though, rejection by 1.4290 will revive medium term bearishness.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, fall from 1.4791 could be correcting whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Firm break of 1.3480 support and sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.3670) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 M EMA will maintain medium term bullishness.
