Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3858; (P) 1.3887; (R1) 1.3935; More….
At this point, GBP/USD is still limited below 1.3929 minor resistance, and bounded below near term falling trend line. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3929 will be the first sign of reversal. That is, the choppy pull back from 1.4345 could have completed at 1.3711 already. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.4144 resistance for confirming this bullish view. On the downside, break of 1.3711 will resume the decline from 1.4345 through 1.3651 resistance turned support. At this point, we’ll look for strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4345 at 1.3429 to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.
