Wed, Jan 16, 2019 @ 03:41 GMT
Dollar jumps sharply in early US session on much stronger than expected job data. ADP report showed that private payroll grew by 298k in January, comparing to consensus of 184k. Prior month's figure was also revised up from 246k to 261k. The data affirmed general expectation of a solid non-farm payroll report to be delivered this Friday. And that would solidify the case for Fed to deliver the highly anticipated rate hike next week. Also released in US session, Q4 non-farm productivity was finalized at 1.3% while unit labor costs at 1.7%. From Canada, housing starts rose 1k to 210k in February. Building permits rose 5.4% mom. Labor productivity rose 0.4% qoq in Q4.
Sharp volatility in Sterling continues today as hawkish comments from BoE chief economist Andy Haldane propels it higher. Haldane said today that partial removal of monetary stimulus would be "prudent relatively soon". And he noted that "risks associated with tightening too early, on the one hand, and too late, on the other, has swung materially towards the latter in the past six to nine months." He pointed out that "the risks of tightening too early have shrunk as growth and, to lesser extent, inflation have shown greater resilience than expected. And if policy tightened too late, this could result in a much steeper path of rate rises later on."
Trade war is back into the spot light today, sparkled by Trump's Bloomberg interview with hostile comments on EU and China. Investor sentiments are clearly weighed down. At the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.58%, DAX down -0.75%...
After initial selloff, dollar regains some growth in early US session. Nonetheless, that's more about pre-weekend profit taking. The greenback is still trading as the weakest one for the week, followed by the Loonie. Yen continues to trade as the strongest one and is picking up some momentum against Europeans. Released from US, housing starts rose to 1.33m annualized rate in January, building permits rose to 1.40m. Import price index rose 1.0% mom in January. Canada manufacturing sales dropped -0.3% mom in December. International securities transactions dropped CAD -1.97b in December. Released earlier, UK retail sales dropped -0.3% mom in December.
Global market sentiments stabilized after steep early selloff. DOW initially dived to 23778.74 but rebounded to close up 567.02 pts or 2.33% at 24912.77. S&P 500 recovered 46.2 pts or 1.74% to 2695.14. NASDAQ also regained 148.35 pts or 2.13% to 7115.88. Asian markets followed with Nikkei trading up 660 pts or 3% at the time of writing. In the currency markets, Yen remains the strongest one for the week so far despite paring back some gains. Yen is followed by Kiwi and Dollar. Meanwhile, European majors remain the weakest, with Sterling leading the way down
Global stock markets suffered steep selloff last week as US President Donald Trump has finally declare the start of trade war with China. Dollar was under broad based pressure with the development, but it was only the second weakest...
Australian dollar is steady after RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. Governor Philip Lowe continued to be confident on the economy. He noted in the accompanying statement that "the bank's central forecast for the Australian...
The forex markets are pretty steady in Asian session today as markets are preparing for an extremely busy week ahead. Dollar is trying to recovery. While the greenback is trading broadly higher, it's kept in Friday's range. There is no realistic sign of short term bottoming yet. There are countless important data to be released this week, including PCE, ISM and NFP from the US. FOMC is also expected to deliver a hawkish twist to prepare the markets for March hike. But US President Donald Trump's tone regarding Dollar in the State of Union address could be the trend defining moment.
Dollar turns mixed in early US session after weaker than expected economic data. Personal income rose 0.2% in March versus consensus of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.0% versus consensus of 0.2%. Headline CPI slowed to 1.8% yoy, down from 2.1% yoy. Core PCE slowed to 1.6% yoy down from 1.8% yoy. Dollar traders will look into the string of key events this week for guidance. Fed is widely expected to keep policies unchanged on Wednesday. But at this point, Fed fund futures are pricing in over 60% of a June hike. Markets would be eager to get some hints for that in this week's FOMC statement. Meanwhile, ISM indices and non-farm payroll would shed some lights on how the US economy would rebound after a weak Q1.
Dollar trades with an undertone for most of the day, but it's trying to regain some ground after stronger than expected up stream inflation data. Nonetheless, momentum is so far too weak for the greenback to resume recent rebound. Traders will still likely wait for tomorrow's CPI data and FOMC statement/projections before making up their minds. Meanwhile, Sterling also fails to ride on stronger than expected CPI data and is stuck in tight range. Commodity currencies remain the strongest ones for today and for the week.
Sterling rebounds today as UK prime minister Theresa May pledged to adopt a "phased approach" to achieve a "smooth and orderly Brexit". More important, the positive reaction was towards the confirmation that "the government will put the final deal that's agreed between the U.K. and the EU to a vote in both Houses of Parliament before it comes into force." May emphasized that UK will not stay as a member of the single market. But She would opt to "have a customs agreement with EU" and reach the country's "own tariff schedules at the WTO". GBP/USD's break of 1.2316 minor support argues that the pair has successfully defended 1.1946 key near term support and opens up the case for further rebound to 1.2774 resistance.
Dollar is losing some momentum but it's still likely to end the week as the strongest one. The initial reactions for US President Donald Trump's tax plan were positive. But markets quickly turned into cautious mode as they reassess the situation. DOW gained 0.18% to 22381.20 overnight, but stayed below 22419.51 record high made last week. S&P 500 ended at new record at 2510.06 by was kept below Thursday's high as 2511.75. 10 Year yield opened sharply higher and jumped to as high as 2.344, but pared back all gains to close flat at 2.309. In the currency markets, commodity currencies are set to end as the weakest ones. Euro, Yen and Sterling could end the week mixed.
Trading is relatively subdued in the forex markets today as the quarter is heading for close. Euro turned into sideway trading but is set to end the week as the weakest major currency. In spite of more Brexit news, Sterling is just mixed for the week, up against Dollar, Europeans and Yen. Canadian dollar continues to be supported by firmness in oil price as WTI crude oil is holding on to 50 handle after brief retreat. Aussie follows as risk appetite returned to the markets. In other markets, European indices are mixed while US futures point to a flat open. Gold lost steam as Dollar rebounds and is heading back to 1240.
Dollar stays weak against Euro and Sterling in early US session as non-farm payroll risk is cleared. NFP showed 211k growth in the US job market in April, above expectation of 180k. However, prior month's weak figure was revised further down to 79k from 98k. Unemployment rate, however, dropped to 4.4%, down from 4.5% and below expectation of 4.6%. That's the lowest figure in nearly a decade since May 2007. Average hourly earnings showed 0.3% mom growth, in line with consensus. But prior month's wage growth was revised down to 0.1% mom.
Yen's weakness continue in quiet trading today and trades a touch softer after trade balance release. But overall, the markets are trading in tight range. The only exception is New Zealand Dollar which is resuming this month's broad based rally ahead of RBNZ rate decision on Thursday. Sterling recovers mildly as Brexit negotiations are finally starting today. Dollar and Euro are mixed. In other markets, gold is trading in tight range between 1250/60 for the moment. WTI crude oil is also range bound below 45 handle.
The Japan Yen surges broadly today on risk aversion as last week's selloff in NASDAQ is spreading over. At the time of writing, DAX is trading down -0.9% while CAC is down -1.0%. FTSE is down a mere -0.1% as helped by renewed selling in Sterling. While DOW opens nearly flat, NASDAQ is losing another -1% in early trading. Elsewhere, the Pound is under some pressure again as it breaches last week's low against Euro and Yen. Dollar is also trading softer as despite firm expectation of an FOMC rate hike later in the week.
The forex markets turned into consolidative mode last week as Dollar and Yen lost momentum. Turkish currency crisis hit a climax on Monday but worries eased after the government's measures were well taken by investors. The fear of extra...
Risk aversion comes back to the markets today. Syria tension comes into spotlight and US-China trade war leaves the stage temporarily. DAX turned south at initial trading and never looked back. It's currently trading down -1% at the time...
The forex markets are generally staying in familiar range as traders turn cautious ahead of G20 summit and, of course, the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. There are rumors flying around on whether there will be a deal of no...
Dollar remains the strongest one for the week as supported by treasury yields. 10 year yield extended recent rally to close at 3.109 overnight, and it hits as high as 3.127 in Asian session. 30 year yield also jumped...
- advertisement -