Sat, Apr 04, 2020 @ 10:57 GMT
Dollar is trading with a soft tone today as traders are cautiously waiting for tomorrow's job report. And just like how it was in recent months, wage growth will be more important than the headline number. For now, Yen...
Dollar suffered another round of selloff this week and remains broadly weak today. Free fall in treasury yields continued overnight with 10-year yield closing at 2.081, down -0.061. 2% handle is now looking vulnerable with current downside acceleration. Tech...
Dollar rises broadly in early US session as partly helped by pleasant surprise in initial jobless claims, which fell to lowest since 1969. But gains are so far limited as markets are awaiting meeting between Trump and Chinese Vice...
Dollar recovers in general today as markets turned into consolidation mode. Euro is treading water while markets await ECB rate decision and press conference. Traders would be eager to hear how ECB President Mario Draghi would clarify his comments in the past few weeks. Or Draghi will just let markets' perceived ECB hawkishness be an assumed base case. Meanwhile, Yen is steady as BoJ delivered what are expected, keeping policies unchanged, raising growth forecast and lowering inflation forecast. Aussie was lifted briefly by solid job data but quickly retreated.
Euro trades broadly higher as lifted by comments from ECB officials that affirm the expectation of some sort of tapering in asset purchases next year. Catalonia remains a risk to the common currency but the case for independence seem to be fading. The risk is taking a back seat for the moment. Meanwhile, Sterling also recovers together with Euro as Prime Minister Theresa May seems to be safe from being ousted for now. Dollar, on the other hand, is trading generally lower together with the Japanese Yen.
The global financial markets are blessed by strong risk appetite today, as US and China agreed on 90 days ceasefire on trade war. US stock futures point to sharply higher open, following strengthen and European and Asian markets. Australian...
There were a lot of happenings in the financial markets last week. The more hawkish than expected FOMC announce was supposed to give Dollar a strong boost. But it was the resilience of Euro that's much more convincing. New Zealand Dollar ended as the strongest one leading up to Saturday's election. Kiwi traders should be given a relief after the ruling National Party won the election, even though without outright majority. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar ended as the weakest as recent consolidation continued. Yen and Swiss Franc followed as the next weakest in an era of global monetary stimulus exit.
Sentiments turned sour again after US President Donald Trump's harsh words on China at UN. But reactions in the forex markets are relatively muted. Dollar is the stronger one for now. New Zealand Dollar is supported after RBNZ stands...
Trade talk optimism, trade pessimism, drove markets up and down last week. In the end, Presidents of US and China decided to give markets some lip service and boosted stocks towards weekly close. Words, rather than substance, are enough...
Dollar recovers mildly today but momentum has been weak. There is no change in it's general down trend against Euro, Yen and Sterling. And, not the mention the greenback's weakness against Canadian and Aussie. Political uncertainty in US is one of the key factors in limiting any rebound attempt in the greenback. Fed fund futures are now pricing in less than 50% chance of another rate hike by end of the year. And indeed, markets are starting to question that even if Fed does hike, the sluggish inflation outlook will keep it standing pat next year. The drama in the White House seems never-ending with US President Donald Trump replacing his chief of staff Reince Priebus last Friday. Retired General John Kelly was installed in the place. Some analysts noted that could be a turning point for Trump as he's now shaking up his top team.
Dollar suffers renewed selloff in Asian session with EUR/USD finally taking out 1.2537 near term resistance. The development could trigger more broad based weakness in the greenback before the weekly close. Elsewhere in the currency markets, Yen remains the strongest one for the week after Haruhiko Kuroda's nomination as BoJ Governor again is finally confirmed. Euro is trading as the second strongest for the week and that helps keep EUR/JPY resilient above 132 handle. Dollar and Canadian Dollar are the two weakest ones. Aussie closely follow as the third weakest after RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated the neutral stance.
Global stock market crash continues today as total coronavirus cases are set to break 130k level very soon. Sentiments were rocked by US unilateral ban of European travellers, which also prompted EU condemnation. US stock futures hit limit down...
The pattern continues today with Dollar trying to recovery but fails. Economic data from US are solid but that gives little support to the greenback. Instead, Euro shines today as PMI data confirmed a "stellar" end to 2017, as the best year for over a decade. Released from US, ADP report showed 250k growth in private sector jobs in December, above expectation of 190k. Initial claims rose 5k to 250k in the week ended December. Challenger report showed -3.6% yoy fall in planned layoffs in December. From Canada, IPPI rose 1.4% mom in November. RMPI rose 5.5% mom.
Dollar trades generally weaker today except versus Yen and Canadian Dollar, where it's consolidating in oversold conditions. The greenback, nonetheless, continues to feel the weight added by dovish testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen will have the second round of her testimony today but that will likely bring little news. Meanwhile, overwhelming strength is seen in Aussie and Kiwi today, as lifted by rebound in commodity prices and solid Chinese trade data. Euro, on the hand, is also struggling as traders start to turn cautious on ECB policy bets. Sterling is believed to be saved by comments from BoE hawk Ian McCafferty and rebounds against most others.
Dollar stays soft on cautious comments from Fed officials. Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed CHair Janet Yellen indicated that risks from inflation are two-sided, and it was premature to conclude that the underlying inflation trend would continue to fall below the 2% target, despite the slowdown in the price gains in recent months. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan advocated a cautious approach to rate hike and said that "future removals of accommodation should be done in a gradual and patient manner."
Monetary easing from central banks remain a major background theme in the markets. Euro is sold off this week as markets are preparing for dovishness from ECB today. While immediate policy action is not envisaged, President Mario Draghi is...
While the it looks like Dollar couldn't care less, global equities seem to be responding very well to the developments on the US tax plan. House and Senate Republicans are expected to pass the final bill mid-week. And the bill could then be on President Donald Trump's desk before Christmas. Nikkei closed up 1.55% at 22901.77 earlier today. European indices follow and gains broadly. In particular, DAX is up 1.6% at the time of writing while CAC 40 is up 1.2%. In the currency markets, major pairs and crosses are generally stuck in range with exception in weakness in Canadian Dollar. Euro is trading broadly higher with Nov Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.5% yoy.
Dollar trades broadly lower as markets generally percevied Fed chair Janet Yellen's testimony as a dovish one. DOW ended up 123.07 pts, or 0.57% at record high of 21532.14. Meanwhile, 10 year yield closed sharply lower by -0.035 at 2.327. A focus today is on 112.88 in USD/JPY which could trigger further selling of the greenback on breaking. EUR/USD retreated quite sharply overnight but is holding on to 1.1382 minor support, and thus maintains near term bullishness. And of course, USD/CAD is set to extend it's near term down trend towards 1.2460 low as the Loonie is boosted by BoC's neutral rate hike and rebound in oil price.
Sterling and Euro are trading as the weaker ones today, in otherwise mixed markets. Dollar appeared to be lifted by Trump's renewed threats to China on tariffs. He said it's "highly unlikely" to drop the planned tariff hike on...
Trading remains rather quiet in the forex markets this week so far. Dollar was supported by upbeat comments from Fed officials regarding a new term rate hike. Jerome Powell also indicated that he preferred continuity when taking over...
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