Tue, Jul 23, 2019 @ 06:58 GMT
The financial markets are generally quiet in Asian session today, with stock indices stuck in tight range. Sterling turned mixed after knee-jerk reactions to new Brexit chaos overnight. The Pound is probably as clueless the UK government on what's...
Yen and Dollar are both strong as the US announced to move on with 10% tariffs on another USD 200B in Chinese imports. That could come into effect as soon as in September. Asian Markets are broadly in red....
Yen regains some ground today as global markets, except US, are back in risk averse mode. Another day of selloff in the Turkish Lira is a reason for the selloff in European stocks. USD/TRY hits as high as 6.839...
Sterling appears to be lifted by the news that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has taken over Brexit negotiation. That raised the chance of some speedier conclusions as well as more unified position, as least in front of the...
Fed Governor Jerome Powell was finally confirmed as US President Donald Trump's nomination as the one to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed Chair next year. House republicans also released the tax bill finally. Stock markets responded well to the news with DOW closing up 81.25 pts, or 0.35% at new record high. S&P 500 also reversed earlier loss and closed up 0.02% at 2579.85. But judging from the reactions in bonds, Powell is taken as a dovish Fed chair. 10 year yield lost 0.029 to close at 2.347, notably lower comparing to last week's close at 2.428. Powell is seen as a safe choice that would largely follow Yellen's path of gradual tightening. Focus will now turn to non-farm payrolls report.
Yen and Swiss Franc are finally showing some strength today. There was no special escalation in US-China relationship as the former refrained from naming the latter as currency manipulator. But recovery attempts in stocks were rather short lived. Selloff...
Dollar surges broadly today, except versus Aussie, as helped by the selloff in Euro. Dollar index reaches as high as 103.52 and is set to test recent high at 103.65. Nonetheless, Dollar bulls could stay cautious ahead of key economic data to be released this week, including Friday's non-farm payroll, as well as FOMC Minutes. Euro is weighed down by talk that Italy might eventually leave the Eurozone, and receives little help from better than expected German data. Oil price resumes rally as the agreement of OPEC and non-OPEC countries on production cut kicks start. WTI crude oil surges to 18-month high at 55.24. Gold is weighed down by the strength in dollar and dips below 1150 handle.
The forex market open the week rather steadily with major indices stuck inside Friday's range. Aussie is generally lower followed by Yen. Meanwhile, Sterling, Dollar and Swiss Franc are generally higher. But the picture could quickly change as volatility...
The financial markets are rather steady in Asia today. Nikkei and and Singapore Strait Times are having notably rebounds. But China and Hong Kong stock markets are mixed. In the currency markets, Yen is the generally weaker one, followed...
Australian Dollar trades broadly higher today after RBA stood pat but raised growth forecast a little. Though, it's being held below last week's high against both Dollar and Euro. More evidence is needed to prove its strength. Sterling, on...
Sterling reversed earlier gains and weakened broadly overnight after the meeting between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker failed deliver agreements on Brexit. Dollar also softened mildly as boost from tax bill faded. Traders are also cautious as there are still much work to be done to reconcile the House and Senate tax bills. And there are still lots of uncertainties on what the final versions would be. Investors in other markets were also cautious. DOW jumped to record high at 24534.04, but pared back much gain to close at 24290.05, up only 0.24%. S&P 500 rose to record high at 2665.19 too, but closed down -0.11% at 2639.44. Asian markets also trade with an undertone today with Nikkei losing -0.15% at the time of writing.
Canadian Dollar drops sharply in early US session after terrible weak retail sales data. Headline retail sales dropped -0.8% mom in December versus expectation of -0.1%. Ex-auto sales were even worse by dropping -1.8% mom, versus expectation of 0.0%. On the other hand, Dollar continues to struggle to extend post FOMC minutes gains despite solid job data. Initial jobless claims dropped -7k to 222k in the week ended February 17. Continuing claims dropped -73k to 1.88m in the week ended February 10. USD/CAD jumps after the releases and is on course towards 1.29 near term resistance zone. However, Dollar is staying below near term resistance against other major currencies, thus, maintaining bearish outlook.
Trading in the forex markets remain rather subdued today. Nonetheless, fresh selling is seen in Sterling in early US session. EUR/GBP is extending recent rally while GBP/USD also breaks 1.2830 minor support. At the same time, Canadian Dollar is given a boost from retail sales data. EUR/USD turns soft as Dollar recovers, after the pair failed to break out 1.1846 minor resistance. But overall, the markets are awaiting new trading theme and would probably need to wait till Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday and Friday.
Risk aversion dominates the global financial markets as geopolitical tension in Korea Peninsula escalates to a tipping point. North Korea fired a missile over Japan to land in the Pacific Ocean. Japan condemned the act as "an unprecedented, serious and significant threat. US warned that "all options are on the table". Nikkei responded by closing down -0.45% at 19362.55. Major European indices are trading deep in red with FTSE down -1.1%, DAX down -1.7% and CAC down -1.3%. US futures also point to sharply lower open. Gold rides on the sentiment and extends this week's rally, accelerating to as high as 1331.9 so far. In the currency markets, Dollar trades as the weakest ones, followed by commodity currencies and Sterling. Swiss Franc is leading the way up, followed by Yen.
Sterling made a massive come back and is trading as the strongest one for today, as boosted by breakthrough in Brexit. At least, UK Prime Minister Theresa May believe she got important legally binding changes that's adequate to satisfy...
The forex markets open the week rather steadily. Dollar recovers as it's digesting last week's steep selloff. The greenback will look into the key events including ISM indices, NFP and FOMC minutes for reasons to rebound. On the other hand, there are important economic data from UK and Canada, as well as ECB accounts that could trigger further rises in respective currency. Meanwhile, additional focus will also be on whether the selloff in global equities last week would extend. It isn't too bad at the timing of writing as Nikkei is trading up 0.28%, above 20000 handle. An eye will also be on oil price while WTI is consolidating above 46 handle, looking for strength to extend the rebound in the last two weeks.
Yen's decline continues today and remains the weakest one for the week. Widening treasury yields is seen as the main driving force behind Yen's selloff. German 10-year yield at 0.186 is now heading back towards 0.2 handle. The rebound...
Dollar jumped overnight on a string of solid economic data but quickly reversed. There were a chorus of hawkish comments from Fed officials. But those comments provided no support to the greenback. In the background, stocks extended recent record record with major indices showing upside acceleration. Treasury yields also strengthened even though both 10-year and 30-year yield are bounded in recent range. Fed fund futures are pricing in 26.6% chance of a March hike and 74% chance of hike by June. That was up from prior day's pricing of 17.7% and 68.0% respectively. The lack of sustained buying in Dollar with positive development elsewhere is worth noting. We can't find any convincing reason for the sluggishness in the greenback yet. But it's likely that Dollar will head lower before going up again.
Dollar jumps sharply today as markets responded positively to comments from Fed official. Also, as political risks in Europe subsides, traders are getting more certain that Fed will hike in June. Indeed, Fed fund futures are now pricing in 87.7% chance of a June hike, comparing with 67.5% a week ago. Dollar index reaches as high as 99.55 so far today and the break of 99.46 resistance is seen as an indication of near term reversal. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is trading as the weakest major currency, together with Swiss Franc, as markets are back into risk seeking mode. FTSE, DAX and CAC are all trading mildly higher after yesterday's brief pull back. US futures also point to higher open as NASDAQ and S&P 500 could extend the record runs.
Dollar edged up mildly after a rather uneventful FOMC rate decision. The lift on the greenback was from the fact that Fed tried to talk down Q1's weakness. And there is no change in the expected rate path for Fed as markets are pricing in over 70% chance of a hike in June. But there was nothing for Dollar bulls to cheer neither. Traders will look into non-farm payroll report from US to be released tomorrow. For the moment, focuses remain on the weakness in Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar. In particular, the latter was dragged down to the lowest level since January by the slump in iron ore prices. Iron ore price started tumbling after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang indicated the plan to cut steel capacity. And based on that, Australia's export values would probably continue to fall further ahead and there is more downside potential in the Aussie.
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