Fri, Jul 19, 2019 @ 09:03 GMT
Dollar staged a strong rebound towards the end of the week as boosted by an overall set of solid job data. While the greenback still ended lower against Euro for the week, it's now looking likely that the greenback has found a short term bottom already. It's still early to confirm a trend reversal for Dollar yet. And we believe the key lies in the yet to be confirmed fiscal policy of US President Donald Trump. But for now, Dollar will probably gyrate higher in the early part of this week until CPI release on Friday. On the other hand, while Euro ended the week as the strongest currency, its rallies against Dollar, Yen and even Swiss Franc are starting to look tired. Sterling ended the week generally lower after markets perceived the BoE Super Thursday as a dovish one. But commodity currencies were even weaker with Canadian Dollar starting to pare back the strong gains in the past two months.
The global stock markets just turned from bad to worse last week. DOW suffered its worst week since the global financial crisis back in 2008, down the week by nearly -7%. S&P 500, down the month by -11.4%, is...
The stock markets in the US ended the week up solidly as boosted by the "perfect" job report as seen by investors. Worries over trade wars also receded as US President Donald Trump has backed down on his steel...
The markets were driven by multiple themes last week. Dollar ended up broadly higher as supported by hawkish FOMC minutes and rebound in treasury yields. However, it's outshone by New Zealand and then Australian Dollar. Kiwi was boosted by...
British Pound ended as the strongest major currency last week as boosted by hawkish BoE announcement. A November rate hike by BoE is now a real possibility. Kiwi ended as the second strongest in spite of some volatility ahead of generally election. Dollar followed on revived speculations of a December Fed hike. Meanwhile, Yen ended as the weakest as markets on return of risk appetite. US equity indices made records highs while strong rebounds were seen in DAX and CAC. FTSE was the exception due to BoE rate expectation. Yen is also additionally pressured as markets are back looking at diverging global interest rates.
Trade talk optimism, trade pessimism, drove markets up and down last week. In the end, Presidents of US and China decided to give markets some lip service and boosted stocks towards weekly close. Words, rather than substance, are enough...
As we expected, USD Index futures turned to NET LENGTH of 18 contracts in the week ended May 15. This was driven by increasing pessimism over other major currencies. According to CFTC's Commitments of Traders report, reduction in speculative...
Sterling, Canadian Dollar and Euro surged broadly last week on hawkish comments from central bankers. The turn in BoE Governor Mark Carney was the most drastic as just a week a go, he said it's not the time of rate hike yet. But then, he indciated the BoE MPC will start debating raising interest rate in the coming months. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz repeated his comments that prior rate cuts in 2015 have already done their job. But this time, Poloz hinted that BoC is approaching a new interest rate decision. That tremendously raised the odds of a July hike by BoC. There were some jitters on Euro on report that markets misinterpreted ECB President Mario Draghi's comments. But after all, it's generally convinced that, with improvements in Eurozone inflation and growth, ECB is transiting into a phase of stimulus withdrawal. And there would likely be tapering announcement in September or by latest October.
Global stock market rout intensified last week with major indices ended in deep red. Over the week, Nikkei was the worst performing one and lost -5.98%. S&P 500 was the worst one in the US and dropped -3.94%. NASDAQ...
Sterling was overwhelming the weakest one last week on Brexit political drama in the UK. It's now even uncertain for how long Prime Minister Theresa would stay in position, not to mention if there would be an agreement for...
Another week of much volatility in the forex markets. Euro surged to two year high against Dollar as markets took ECB's message as a nod to stimulus withdrawal down the road. The common currency ended as the second strongest one, just next to it's cousin Swiss Franc. On the other hand, Sterling fell broadly as rate hike speculations were dented by much lower than expected CPI reading. Dollar followed closely as markets were getting more dissatisfied with US President Donald's lack of progress in tax reforms. Much volatility was also seen in Australian Dollar on RBA rhetorics. Canadian Dollar also gained against the greenback but is seen as losing momentum.
Steep selloff in the global stock markets ended up as the biggest news last week. Some attributed the surge in global yields and stock market declines to the solid non-farm payroll report from US. The headline 200k growth confirmed underlying healthiness in the US job market. And more importantly 0.3% mom rise in average hourly earnings in January, following 0.4% mom rise in December, indicates pickup in momentum in wage growth. The case for Fed to hike three times this year looks more likely than ever. And subject to development, Fed could indeed hike the fourth time in December.
The last week of August was unusually volatile and eventful. It's a week to remember yet it's hard to remember all the details. Almost every major currency got its own stories. Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen ended as the...
It's another week with multiple theme happening at the same time. Swiss Franc ended as the strongest on risk aversion. Oil's free fall could be that extra lift the the Franc. Dollar ended as the second strongest, but that's...
Risk sentiments continued to recover last week as Fed officials indicated they would be patient before making the next rate move. Positive developments of US-China trade talks also helped. One notable development was the rebound in US treasury yields...
Dollar ended the weak as the weakest major currency as weighed down by a number of factors. Judging from the fact that Yen and Swiss Franc were the strongest ones, risk aversion was a key factor in driving the greenback down. There is so far no resolution to the geopolitical tension between the US and North Korea yet. While US is calling for United Nations Security Council to vote on fresh sanctions against North Korea, it's effectiveness is in heavy doubt. There were also fears that North Korea will launch another missile to celebrate its foundation day on September 9, that is today. Also, not long after hurricane Harvey left, another one Irma is expected to land this weekend too. Some estimated the dame of Irma to be as much as USD 200b, topping Katrina that slammed into New Orleans back in 2005.
Yen and Dollar closed the week generally lower on strong risk appetite. There was some sort of optimism over US-China trade negotiations throughout the week. And that helped DOW and China SSE extend recent rally. DOW closed above 26000...
Yen surged broadly last week and ended as the strongest one as partly driven by flattening yield curve, and partly by global risk aversion. Selloff in oil was one of the major factors driving equities down. Euro and Swiss Franc followed Yen with the common currency supported solidly by strong German GDP. On the other hand, commodity currencies ended as the weakest ones. In particular, data from Australia suggested that RBA would stay on hold for longer than originally expected. Meanwhile, inflation data from Canada argued that BoC won't rush into another rate hike. News from US were mixed. On the positive side, a big step was made with passage of the tax bill in House. On the negative side, the real challenges lie in Senate where Republicans only have a slim majority. And, efforts to reconcile the bills of both chambers are huge. Also, there are concerns of political instability as Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russian probe is getting closer to US President Donald Trump. But so far, US financial markets have displayed much more resilience than others.
Dollar closed broadly higher last week, and closed as the strongest as boosted by a couple of factors. Firstly, House approved Senate's version of budget blueprint, and cleared an important procedural step for getting the tax cuts done by the end of the year. Secondly, markets responded positively to news that Fed chair Janet Yellen is out of the race for a renewal. Instead, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Stanford University economist John Taylor are now the front runners. Powell is reported to be slightly more favored by US President Donald Trump and is seen as a less hawkish candidate. But after all, there is still a possibility of Powell/Taylor combination for chair/vice of Fed. And either one seems to be more welcomed by the markets than Yellen. Thirdly, Q3 GDP came in at an impressive 3% annualized growth, despite the impacts of hurricanes.
Much volatility was seen in the markets last week with a lot of themes developed. Canadian Dollar ended as the strongest one as strong data boosted chance of August BoC hike. Swiss Franc followed as the second strongest on...
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