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Fundamental Analysis

Optimism Flowing Once Again

That good feeling is back in the markets after we saw some end of month profit-taking on Monday, with Europe seeing gains of more than 1% and Wall Street eyeing a similar open. The last month was massive for the markets. One major risk event removed and three vaccines that...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets After finishing the astonishing November rally with a dissonant yesterday, investors see the glass again half full rather than half empty. Yesterday’s setback probably was mainly an end-of month, technically inspired repositioning. Even so, today’s news headlines and data were also mostly market-friendly. The risk revival started in Asia...

Canada GDP Bounced Back in Q3, But Recovery to Stall in Q4

40.5% (annualized) Q3 GDP bounce-back big (but smaller than expected) Spending on services still very restrained - goods-producing sectors doing better Savings hoard to boost spending once virus containment measures ease The 8.9% increase in Q3 GDP (40.5% at an annualized rate) didn’t meet forecasters’ expectations, but still marked...

Brexit: Three Scenarios and What’s Priced In for GBP/USD?

Nearly four and half years on from the Brexit vote in June 2016, the finish line is finally in sight for the UK to formally leave the European Union. One way or another, the UK’s “transition period” will officially end on 31 December, though we’ve learned through experience that...

Swiss Franc Dips Despite Strong GDP

The Swiss franc is showing some volatility this week. After starting the week with gains, USD/CHF has surrendered those gains in the Tuesday session. Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9055, down 0.36% on the day. Swiss GDP beats consensus Most major economies have rebounded in impressive form in Q3, after sustaining sharp...

U.S Futures Rising – Watch TSLA, PFE, BNTX, XOM

The S&P 500 Futures are on the upside after they closed mixed on Monday. Later today, the U.S. Commerce Department will release October construction spending (+0.8% on month expected). The Institute for Supply Management will report its Manufacturing Index for November (58.0 expected). Research firm Markit will publish final readings...

Aussie on Hold ahead of GDP

The Australian dollar has recorded small gains in Tuesday trade. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7349, up 0.08% on the day. RBA stays the course As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia remained on the sidelines at its final policy meeting of the year. After a busy November meeting, the...

Stocks Resume Gains, Dollar Whipsaws As Optimism Returns

Asian recovery gathers speed, pulling global stocks higher Dollar bounces higher, then falls as temporary growth jitters subside Powell offers no policy clues in prepared remarks as US data underwhelms Pound spikes above $1.34 as Brexit deal speculation heats up Recovery back on track, at least in Asia Strong manufacturing...

OPEC+ Drama Sinks Oil, Gold Steadies And Bitcoin Eases Off Fresh Record

Oil lower as OPEC deal remains elusive Crude prices remained heavy after OPEC+ had to postpone their meeting a few days to allow more time for energy ministers to reach an agreement. The last time OPEC+ failed to reach a deal was in March, before the historic plunge, so producers...

Asia Supported On Robust Caixin Survey, RBA Delivers No Surprises, Powell On Tap

Asian equity markets higher on Moderna, Chinese PMI Global equities are starting December nicely after both Moderna takes the next step in getting its COVID-19 vaccine authorized and China’s Caixin PMI surged to a 10-year high, as external demand impresses. Shanghai soars following the private survey release, leading the gains...

Wall Street Bearish On Monday But Concludes Historical November Rally

US equities declined on Monday, but that didn’t prevent the benchmark S&P 500 index from securing the best November ever. Traders were taking profits after a robust rally fuelled by vaccine optimism. Besides this, stocks took a pause amid deteriorating tensions between the US and China. On the last day...

Credit Suisse Group : New Chairman Proposal

The Board of Directors of Credit Suisse Group AG proposes to the shareholders to elect António Horta-Osório as the new Chairman of the Board of Directors at the next Annual General Meeting on April 30, 2021. António Horta-Osório shall succeed Urs Rohner who will step down in 2021 as...

EU Indices Try To Rebound | TA Focus On Enel

INDICES Yesterday, European stocks were broadly under pressure. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined 1.0%, Germany's DAX fell 0.3%, France's CAC 40 slid 1.4%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 sank 1.6%. EUROPE ADVANCE/DECLINE 67% of STOXX 600 constituents traded lower or unchanged yesterday. 70% of the shares trade above their 20D MA vs 75%...

FTSE Surges After Chinese PMIs Impress

After a phenomenal November run-up European markets are broadly resuming gains at the start of December, a traditionally strong moth for equities. Vaccine optimism, impressive Chinese factory data and the prospect of continuing fiscal and monetary stimulus is keeping the mood upbeat. China’s blue chip index surged over 1.5% on...

JPY Remains Strong Despite Jobless Rate

This morning, government data showed that Japan's jobless rate rose to 3.1% in October (as expected) from 3.0% in September, while capital spending dropped 10.6% on year in the third quarter (vs -12.1% expected). From a technical point of view, on a daily chart, USD/JPY is capped by a declining...

ISM’s Will Remain Strong In November, Boosted By The Removal Of Election Uncertainty

Markets The dollar's intraday slide ended after US investors entered dealings. The trade-weighted greenback reached its softest level in more than 2 years' time with EUR/USD touching the 1.20-mark only the second time since April 2018. There wasn't much news to guide trading with (US) investors possibly making some last-ditch...

Australian Dollar Rises As RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

The Australian dollar rose slightly after the RBA delivered its final interest rate decision of the year. The bank left interest rates at zero and announced that it would continue with its asset purchases to support the economy. Members also hinted that they will not hike interest rates any...

The Big Picture – Darkest Before Dawn

Market movers today Brexit negotiations and vaccine developments continue to be the main market movers. In addition, the euro area November flash HICP is released today. Overall our expectation is for core inflation and headline to stay subdued (0.2% and -0.3%, respectively). Interesting on the core side will be...

USD Trades Broadly Weaker

General Trend Topix Securities, Real Estate, Marine Transportation, Electric Appliances and Insurance indices are among the gainers in Japan; Banks and Air Transportation firms lag Australian Consumer and Financial firms rebound from the declines seen on Mon; Energy index lags Australian lithium firms announce merger (Pilbara Minerals and Altura) ...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets At the start of the new week, global trading showed no clear, unequivocal trend across markets. Asian equities finished the month with modest losses despite the a solid China PMI confidence, both for the manufacturing and the services sector. This investor caution also spilled over into European trading. At...

Oil Steady ahead of OPEC Meeting

Traders take profit as OPEC+ meets to discuss 2021 production plans Pre-meeting talks between a select few key OPEC+ ministers failed to generate a consensus on production plans for next year. This includes plans for January, when cuts had planned to be reduced by two million barrels, to 5.7 million....

Swiss Franc Flat after Mixed Data

The Swiss franc is showing little movement at the start of the new trading week. Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9049, up 0.07% on the day. The currency is trying to shake off a mini-slump, after posting declines over four straight days, which resulted in a losing week for...

Chilled End to Bumper November

It's been a pretty chilled start to the week, with a little more profit taking kicking in as we bring an end to a bumper November. More vaccine news from Moderna, as they applied for emergency regulatory approval in the US and Europe. That could see the vaccine distributed before...

U.S Futures Consolidating – Watch SPGI, INFO, MRNA, GS

The S&P 500 Futures are mixed after they closed higher on Friday. Later today, the Market News International will release Chicago PMI for November (59.2 expected). The National Association of Realtors will post October pending home sales (+1.0% on month expected). The Dallas Federal Reserve will post its Manufacturing Outlook...

Japanese Yen Calm At 104

It was a quiet week for the Japanese yen and the lack of movement has continued on Monday. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 104.03, down 0.07% on the day. In Japan, last week’s inflation numbers were soft, as inflation continues to limp along at low levels. The BoJ Core CPI,...

Dollar Slips Again On Fed Speculation, Stocks Pause For Breath

Dollar extends slide as investors look to Powell testimony and NFP report for Fed clues Stocks stumble at start of week, but vaccine progress keeps risk appetite alive Pound still holding out for Brexit breakthrough as time running out Oil slips as OPEC+ unlikely to agree on long...

Is 74 Line Next For The Aussie?

The Australian dollar is calm in Monday trade. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7386, down 0.02% on the day. Aussie posts excellent November The Australian dollar gained 1.1% last week and has posted an outstanding November, with gains of 4.8%. The US dollar has been in a prolonged slump, and cyclical...

EU Indices Consolidate | TA Focus On Sanofi

INDICES Friday, European stocks were broadly higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.5%, Germany's DAX advanced 0.4%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.6%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained 0.1%. EUROPE ADVANCE/DECLINE 65% of STOXX 600 constituents traded higher Friday. 75% of the shares trade above their 20D MA vs 75% Thursday (above the...

Stock Futures Retreat From Overbought levels

US stock futures are flashing red, but the main indexes are still set to finish the month with strong gains. At the time of writing, the futures on Dow Jones have declined by 0.70%, the S&P 500 has dropped 0.60%, and Nasdaq is down 0.25%. Bears took the lead as...

EUR Remains Strong Ahead German Inflation

Later today, the German Federal Statistical Office will post November CPI, expected at -0.1% on year. On a monthly basis, it will be expected at -0.7%. From a technical point of view, on a daily chart, EUR/USD still stands above its 50-day moving average (in blue). Readers may therefore consider...