US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 97.8 to 100.3 in July, above expectation of 99.8. Present Situation Index fell from 135.3 to 133.6. But Expectations Index rose from 72.8 to 78.2. Nevertheless, Expectations reading below 80 usually signals a recession ahead.

“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

“Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.”

Full US Conference Board consumer confidence release here.

US PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in June, matched expectations. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations. Prices for goods decreased -0.2% mom and prices for services increased 0.2% mom. Food prices increased 0.1% mom and energy prices decreased -2.1% mom.

From the same month one year ago, PCE price index growth slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy, matched expectations. However, core PCE price index was unchanged at 2.6% yoy, above expectation of 2.5% yoy. Prices for goods decreased -0.2% yoy and prices for services increased 3.9% yoy. Food prices increased 1.4% yoy and energy prices increased 2.0% yoy.

Personal income rose 0.2% mom or USD 50.4B, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Personal spending rose 0.3% mom or USD 57.6B, matched expectations.

Full US Personal Income and Outlays release here.

US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 235k in the week ending July 20, slightly below expectation of 238k. Four-week moving average of initial claims was relatively unchanged at 236k.

Continuing claims fell -9k to 1851k in the week ending July 13. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5k to 1854k, highest since December 4, 2021.

Full US jobless claims release here.

US durable goods orders fell sharply by -6.6% mom to USD 264.5 in June, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom rise. However, ex-transportation orders rose 0.5% mom to USD 188.7B, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-defense orders fell -7.0% mom to USD 247.6B. Transportation equipment drove the headline contraction and fell -20.5% mom to USD 75.8B.

Full US durable goods orders release here.

The advance estimate of US GDP growth in Q2 2024 showed a robust 2.8% annualized increase, significantly exceeding the anticipated 2.0% and doubling Q1’s pace of 1.4%.

This stronger-than-expected growth was driven by rises in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Notably, imports also increased, which are subtracted in the GDP calculation.

On the inflation front, GDP price index slowed from 3.1% to 2.3%, falling below the expected 2.6%. PCE price index also eased from 3.4% to 2.6%, and core PCE price index saw a notable decrease from 3.7% to 2.9%.

The sharp uptick in GDP growth, coupled with cooling inflation metrics, presents an optimistic economic outlook. Deceleration in price indexes suggests easing inflationary pressures, which would support rate cut by Fed in the coming months.

Full US Q2 GDP advance release here.

US PMI Manufacturing fell from 51.6 to 49.5 in July, a 7-month low. PMI Services jumped from 55.3 to 56.0, a 28-month high. PMI Composite rose from 54.8 to 55.0, a 27-month high.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The flash PMI data signal a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario at the start of the third quarter, with the economy growing at a robust pace while inflation moderates.

“Output across manufacturing and services is expanding at the strongest rate for over two years in July, the survey data indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of 2.5% after a 2.0% gain was signaled for the second quarter.

“The rate of increase of average prices charged for goods and services has meanwhile slowed further, dropping to a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% target.

“The good news is qualified, however, with both the growth and inflation pictures containing some worrying elements to monitor in the coming months.

“From the output perspective, growth has become worryingly skewed, with manufacturing slipping back into contraction as the service sector gains further strength. Some of the production decline was linked to staff shortages, so could prove temporary – something which is supported by the sector reporting improved confidence about future growth prospects. However, both manufacturers and service providers are reporting heightened uncertainty around the election, which is dampening investment and hiring.

“In terms of inflation, the July survey saw input costs rise at an increased rate, linked to rising raw material, shipping and labour costs. These higher costs could feed through to higher selling prices if sustained, or cause a squeeze on margins.”

Full US PMI release here.