China’s GDP growth slowed to 2.9% yoy in Q4, down from Q3’s 3.9% yoy but beat expectation of 1.8% yoy. For 2022 as a whole, GDP grew 3.0%, sharply lower than 2021’s 8.4%, but was better than 2020’s 2.2%. That’s still the second worst on record nonetheless.
In December, industrial production rose 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 0.3% yoy. Retail sales declined -1.8% yoy, much better than expectation of -9.5% yoy. Fixed asset investment grew 5.1% ytd yoy, above expectation of 5.1%.
“The foundation of domestic economic recovery is not solid as the international situation is still complicated and severe while the domestic triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations is still looming,” NBS said in a release.
Also released, China’s population decreased by -850k in 2022, the first contraction in more than six decades. Birthrate was at 6.77 births per 1000 people, sharply down from 2021’s 7.52 births, and marked the lowest level on record. Death rate rose from 7.18 to 7.37 per 1000 people, highest since 1976.
ECB Lane: Interest rates have to be higher under vast majority of scenarios
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in an FT interview published today, “we’re not yet at the level of interest rates needed to bring inflation back to 2 per cent in a timely manner”, and “it still requires work”.
Under the “vast majority” of the scenarios, “interest rates do have to be higher than they are now”. “Risks are not yet two-sided, and under a wide range of scenarios, it’s still safe to bring interest rates above where they are now,” he said.
“The question is how do you get from mid-threes at the end of 2023 to the 2% target in a timely manner,” Lane said. “That’s where interest rate policy is going to be important… to make sure that the last kilometer of returning to target is delivered.”
Lane also noted, the self-reinforcing low inflation environment in Eurozone was gotten rid of as a “byproduct” of the inflation shock. He added, “the chronic low-inflation equilibrium we had before the pandemic will return.”