AUD/JPY triangle breakout, heading to long term channel resistance

    AUD/JPY is the biggest mover this week, helped partly by boost from risk-on markets. More importantly, Yen is experiencing steep, broad-based selloff, in reactions to the post-Powell surge in treasury yields. The decisive break of 76.78 resistance confirmed resumption of whole rise from 59.89. We’d be cautious on the case of quick reversal after a triangle breakout thrust. But in any case, 76.78 resistance turned support will be the first line of defense. 75.55 support is the second. AUD/JPY should now challenge long term channel resistance at around 80.45.

    Eurozone CPI accelerated to 1.4%, Unemployment rate dropped to decade low, EUR/GBP recovers

      Eurozone CPI accelerated to 1.4% yoy in March, up from 1.1%, and met expectation. Core CPI, however, was unchanged at 1.1% yoy, missing expectation of 1.1% yoy. Unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% in February, met expectation, and hit the lowest level since 2008.

      UK PMI construction, however, dropped to 47 in March, down from 51.4, much worse than expectation of 51.0. Markit noted construction activity fell amid unusually bad weather in March.

      EUR/GBP recovers notably after the releases. But after all, it’s staying in range of 0.8666 and 0.8796. Thus, intraday bias stays neutral, meaning that range trading strategies are more suitable for now, until a breakout.

      ECB research: Significant increase in protectionism could have material impact on global trade and output

        In article titled “Implications of rising trade tensions for the global economy“, ECB researcher Lucia Quaglietti warned of the impact of escalation of trade tensions.

        Based on simulations carried out by ECB staff, in event of a significant increase in protectionism, “the impact on global trade and output could be material.” In particular, if US increases tariffs “markedly” on imported goods from all trading partners that “retaliate symmetrically”, the outcome for the world economy would be “clearly negative. And, “the impact could be particularly severe in the United States”

        For other countries, those with “closest trade relations” with the US would be most negatively affected. And, “only a few open economies with little exposure to the tariff-imposing country may benefit from trade diversion effects, as they would gain competitiveness in third markets.”

        In addition, the impact of trade tension escalation could be “felt via a number of channels. Higher import prices would lead to higher production costs and lower household purchasing power. Consumption, investment and employment will also be affected. Moreover, there will be economic uncertainty that leads to delay and consumer spending and business investment. Credit supply could be reduced with requirement for higher compensation. And there could be broad spill over to the global financial markets.

        German Merkel wants EU-US trade deal asap

          US President Donald Trump indicated that he and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed a trade deal with the EU. Also at G7, Merkel said she wants EU to reach a trade agreement with US as quickly as possible,

          Merkel said, “we want to talk now about the EU and the United States having deeper talks as quickly as possible… We have a great interest in our trade being intensified. I think we can find solutions… Germany, within the framework of the EU, is working hard on this.”

          WTI breaks near term support, correction could target 34.46 eventually

            WTI crude oil’s decline today and break of 41.13 support should confirm short term topping at 43.50. That came after rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 43.78). Bearish divergence condition is also seen in daily MACD. Considering these two factors, the current corrective fall should be relatively sizeable. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 40.45) should affirm this view. WTI should have a test on 34.46 support before completing the pull back.

            BoJ Kuroda: Economy in increasingly severe situation, likely to remain the case

              In the Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the “powerful monetary easing measures” will support economic and financial activities, together with the government’s coronavirus measures. He also reiterated the pledge to monitor the coronavirus impacts and BoJ “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.”

              He noted again that the economy has been in an “increasingly severe situation” and is “likely to remain the case”. But thereafter. the economy is “likely to improve” supported by accommodative financial conditions and government’s measures, as well as through the “expected materialization of pent-up demand and a projected recovery in production from the decline brought about by the spread of COVID-19.”

              Still, outlook is “extremely unclear” depending on ” the timing of the spread of COVID-19 subsiding and on the magnitude of the impact on domestic and overseas economies”. Risks are “skewed to the downside.

              Kuroda’s full statement here.

              Australia retail sales rose 1.8% mom in Jan, above expectation

                Australia retail sales rose 1.8% mom in January, above expectation of 0.4% mom.

                Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, Ben James said: “The emergence of the Omicron variant and rising COVID-19 case numbers, combined with an absence of mandated lockdowns has resulted in a range of different consumer behaviours. We have seen the type of spending previously associated with lockdowns occurring simultaneously with those associated with the easing of lockdown conditions.”

                “This had led to variations across the industries with Food retailing recording a rise in sales consistent with previous COVID-19 outbreaks as consumers exercise caution amidst surging case numbers. However, the absence of lockdowns meant that other discretionary industries which would usually see a fall during the pandemic have recorded mixed results.”

                Full release here.

                Asian Development Bank lowered China 2019 growth forecast to 6.3%, 2018 unchanged

                  The Asian Development Bank lowered China’s 2019 growth forecast from 6.4% to 6.3%. For 2018, growth projection was kept unchanged at 6.6%. It cited “slower demand growth and an unfavorable trade environment” as the reasons for the downgrade. On US-China trade conflict, ABD said it could “deflate consumer and investor confidence, severely disrupt supply chains, impede technology transfer and foreign investment, and hit export-oriented industries in the PRC. ”

                  ADB Chief Economist Mr. Yasuyuki Sawada said, “services and consumption will continue lifting the PRC’s economy for the rest of 2018 although slower growth is expected next year, as ongoing trade tensions with the United States (US) are expected to affect net exports.” He added that “supportive monetary and fiscal policy will help ease the short-run strains” But also urged that “continued reform progress is needed to sustain future growth.”

                  Looking at the details, net exports are expected to hold back GDP growth for the rest of 2018 and 2019 as ” trade tensions with the US continue to intensify, coupled with a dimmer outlook on global trade and investment activities.” ADB expected current account surplus of China to lower to 0.7% in 2018 and further down to 0.2% in 2019.

                  For developing Asia as a whole, growth in 2018 is expected meet 6.0% forecast. However, 2019 growth projection was also trimmed by -0.1% to 5.8%. The US-China trade measures implemented by September 24 are expected to lower China GDP by -0.5% and US GDP by -0.1%. And they would have a “negligible effect on the rest of developing Asia”. It also noted that “with the trade conflict escalation, the US trade deficit with the PRC would shrink, but the overall US trade deficit would not change much as US imports would be redirected to other countries while US exports to the PRC declined.”

                  Also, ADB warned that “prolonged trade conflict can damage confidence and deter investment. This indirect fallout will be large for many economies in the region and globally, especially if automobiles and other parts become embroiled in the trade conflict.”

                  ADB’s press release on China here.

                  The Asian Development Outlook 2018 update here.

                  Japan MoF to monitor FX closely after flash crash, BoJ may downgrade inflation outlook

                    After yesterday’s spike in Yen, Masatsugu Asakawa, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, said the ministry will “monitor the situation for speculative moves in the foreign exchange market.” He noted that “volatility remains quite high high during Sydney trading.” And, “currency markets are trading in extremely thin liquidity, exacerbating price movements.” For for now, the MoF is not considering to call a meeting with the BoJ on the issue yet.

                    Talking about the BoJ, Nikkei Asian review reported that BoJ board is considering to lower inflation outlook again due to lower oil prices. For fiscal 2019, core inflation forecast could be lowered to 1%, down from October projection of 1.4%. For fiscal 2020, however, there might be just slight revision to current forecast of 1.5%.

                    Canada Freeland: Illegal US 232 steel tariffs should be removed to move ahead with USMCA

                      After meeting with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington yesterday, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland warned that the US steel tariffs raised serious questions on support for ratification of the new NAFTA, now known as USMCA.

                      She said “the existence of these tariffs for many Canadians raises some serious questions about NAFTA ratification”. And, “in order to move ahead with that deal, I think Canadians feel the right thing is, there should be no 232 tariffs or retaliatory tariffs between our two countries.”

                      Freeland raised the issue to Lighthizer clearly and emphasized “these tariffs are completely unacceptable to Canada,” repeating the words “illegal,” “unjustified” and “absurd” several times in describing them.

                      Fitch predicts 25bps RBA hike in 2018, 50bps hike in 2019

                        Fitch rating agency predicts RBA to raise cash rate by 25bps this year. It also predicts another 50bps hike next year in 2019.

                        What Fitch observed is that RBA appears comfortable lagging behind other central banks in tightening policy, allowing exchange rate flexibility to serve as a buffer”. This is in-line with what RBA Governor Stephen Lowe has repeated a couple of times. That is, RBA didn’t cut as deep as other global central banks. And therefore, it also doesn’t need to reverse that cycle as others like Fed and BoC.

                        But Fitch expects Australia economy to gain further momentum this year with growth holding steady at 2.7% in 2019. That’s thanks to “strong terms of trade on income, broadly accommodative financial conditions and buoyant prospects for investment”.

                        RBNZ to stand pat this week, likely throughout 2018 too

                          RBNZ is expected to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75%.

                          According to a Reuters poll, all 16 economists surveyed expected RBNZ to stand pat this week. 14 economists expected RBNZ to hold throughout 2018. 8 forecasts RBNZ to hike by the end of Q3 2019.

                          Sluggish inflation is a key factor giving RBNZ room for not acting. CPI slowed deeply to 1.1% yoy in Q1, sitting near the lower end of the target band.

                          RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr also said after the release that “very benign inflation going forward without doubt, as we’ve forecast.”

                          He added that “what really matters is the confidence and expectation and belief that we are aiming for that midpoint of 2 percent all of the time.” And he pledged that “we are doggedly determined to aim for two percent, but the accuracy around…that is very limited.”

                           

                          US still hoping to get phase 1 trade deal with China done by end of year

                            There are increasing speculations that the completion of the phase one US-China trade deal would slide into next year. China is said to be refraining concrete commitment on farm purchases, while pushing for more extensive tariffs rollbacks. At the same time, tensions between the two countries increased due to unrest in Hong Kong.

                            US national security adviser Robert O’Brien said over the weekend “We were hoping to have [a phase one] deal done by the end of the year. I still think that’s possible”. Though, he also emphasized, “at the same time, we’re not going to turn a blind eye to what’s happening in Hong Kong or what’s happening in the South China Sea, or other areas of the world where we’re concerned about China’s activity.”

                            Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the “ambitious” phase two deal looks increasing less likely for now. An unnamed Chinese office was quoted saying that “It’s Trump who wants to sign these deals, not us. We can wait.” China might want to drag on with phase two negotiations to see if Trump could win a second term in next year’s election.

                            BoJ Kuroda: Inflation expectations may not rise smoothly if there is strong uncertainty

                              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today that the central could debate stimulus exit if policy makers see increasing chance of hitting the 2% inflation target. He noted that “when the possibility of achieving our price target heightens, conditions of an exit would fall into place. The BOJ’s policy board could then discuss conditions for an exit.”

                              However, he emphasized that “With achievement of our price target still distant, it will create market confusion if we explain specific means and timing of an exit (from the easy policy) now.” Also, he warned that “if there is strong uncertainty about future growth, firms will hesitate to raise wages.” He added that “even if firms’ wage- and price-setting stance becomes more proactive, inflation expectations may not rise smoothly.”

                              Swiss CPI slows to 1.4%, import prices turn negative

                                Swiss CPI fell -0.2 mom in November, below expectation of -0.1% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel), was flat at 0.0% mom. Domestic products prices was flat at 0.0% mom. Imported product prices fell -1.1% mom.

                                Annually, CPI slowed from 1.7% yoy to 1.4% yoy, below expectation of 1.6% yoy. Core CPI slowed from 1.5% yoy to 1.4% yoy. Domestic products prices slowed from 2.2% yoy to 2.1% yoy. Imported product prices turned negative from 0.4% yoy to -0.6% yoy.

                                Full Swiss CPI release here.

                                GBPUSD downside breakout, heading to 1.3161 fibonacci level

                                  GBPUSD is a pair to note as it has finally taken out 1.3448 medium term fibonacci support. Last week’s consolidation was relatively brief and weak, with upside capped by 1.36. GBP Action Bias table shows that’s it’s generally bearish against all by JPY.

                                  GBPUSD Action Bias table is consistent with bearish development in the pair.

                                  GBPUSD shows persistent downside red bias in D Action Bias chart.

                                  6H Action Bias also turned red and stays red for 4 bars, in line with downside breakout development.

                                  50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 will be the next near term target.

                                  BoJ Ueda stands firm on monetary easing and negative rates

                                    In his first press conference as new Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will maintain its massive stimulus program, echoing the stance of the previous leadership. Ueda commented, “The BOJ’s current monetary easing is a very powerful one. We need to strive, as we have done so far, to appropriately grasp economic, price, and financial developments to see whether trend inflation will stably and sustainably achieve 2%.”

                                    The governor acknowledged the side-effects of the BOJ’s negative rates, particularly on banks, but noted that banks seem to have sufficient buffers and financial intermediation is functioning. Ueda emphasized the necessity of maintaining negative rates, stating, “Given trend inflation has yet to hit 2%, it’s appropriate to maintain negative rates.”

                                    Regarding Yield Curve Control (YCC), Ueda said, “When looking at current economic, price, and financial developments, it’s appropriate to maintain YCC for now.” He added that any major changes to YCC should be determined by evaluating the economic, price, and financial trends, while also weighing the benefits and costs of the policy.

                                    Ueda noted some positive signs in inflation and wages, saying, “Trend inflation is rising somewhat. There’s also some positive signs in wages. There’s a good chance this will lead to stable, sustained achievement of higher, trend inflation.”

                                    WTI oil dips below 70 as Omicron spreads quickly

                                      Oil prices dip today on concern that the rapid spread of Omicron would push more countries back into restrictions, and hurt demand at least in the near future. That’s also in-line with overall risk-off sentiment in the markets.

                                      WTI’s recovery from 62.90 was choked off after hitting 73.66 and it’s back below 69. For now, unless there will be any disastrous development, we’re seeing price actions from 85.92 high as development into a sideway consolidation pattern, in form a a three-wave flat, or a five-wave triangle. The range should be set inside 61.90/85.92.

                                      In other words, we’re not expecting a break of 61.90 support even in case of further selloff. Break of 73.66 resistance will extend the rebound from 62.90. And even in this case, we’re not expecting a break of 85.92 high too.

                                      North Korea infuriated by Bolton, threatens to cancel Trump-Kim summit

                                        North Korea threatened to cancel Trump-Kim summit after they’re infuriated by comments from Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton that North Korea could follow a Libyan model of nuclear disarmament. The meeting is scheduled to be on June 12.

                                        North Korea’s vice-foreign minister Kim Kye-gwan used strong words in a statement carried by the state news agency KCNA. He condemned that Bolton’s suggestion was “not an expression of intention to address the issue through dialogue”. And, “it is essentially a manifestation of awfully sinister move to impose on our dignified state the destiny of Libya or Iraq which had been collapsed due to yielding the whole of their countries to big powers.”

                                        Kim went further and warned that if the US “corners us and unilaterally demands we give up nuclear weapons we will no longer have an interest in talks and will have to reconsider whether we will accept the upcoming DPRK-US summit”. And, “if President Trump follows in the footsteps of his predecessors, he will be recorded as more tragic and unsuccessful president than his predecessors, far from his initial ambition to make unprecedented success.”

                                        North Korea warns US of nuclear-to-nuclear showdown

                                          Right now, whether the scheduled meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Trump on June 12 in Singapore remains uncertain. North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-Hui issued a strong statement today in response to US Vice President Mike Pence’s recent comments. Choe slammed Pence’s unbridled and impudent remarks” that threatens if “if Kim Jong-un doesn’t make a deal”, North Korea could end up like Libya.

                                          Choe added that “we will neither beg the US for dialogue nor take the trouble to persuade them if they do not want to sit together with us.” And she warned, “whether the US will meet us at a meeting room or encounter us at nuclear-to-nuclear showdown is entirely dependent upon the decision … of the US.”

                                          She went further and said “we can also make the US taste an appalling tragedy it has neither experienced nor even imagined up to now.” And, “as a person involved in the US affairs, I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing out from the mouth of the US vice-president,”

                                          Earlier on Wednesday, Trump said “it could very well happen. Whatever it is, we’ll know next week about Singapore. And if we go, I think it will be a great thing for North Korea.”