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Bitcoin shatters 40K barrier, path to 50K now open?

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    Bitcoin’s surged over the weekend, breaking the 40K barrier for the first time since May 2022, has brought a fresh wave of optimism and focus in the cryptocurrency market. The immediate attention is now on the key level of 41259, a significant Fibonacci projection level. Decisive break through this level could set the stage for a climb through 50K handle.

    The surge is largely driven by growing optimism surrounding the approval of Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. Bloomberg’s expectation of a batch of such funds gaining SEC approval by January adds to this sentiment. This development signifies a major shift towards mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin, fulfilling a long-awaited milestone for many investors and traders.

    Another contributing factor is the anticipated Bitcoin halving event scheduled for May next year. Historically, Bitcoin halvings, which occur every four years, have been associated with bullish market trends. Market participants are eyeing a potential bull run post-halving, with some traders positioning themselves early in anticipation of both the halving and the ETF approval.

    Technically, D MACD suggests that Bitcoin is now in a re-acceleration phase. Immediate focus is on 100% projection of 15452 to 31815 from 24896 at 41259. Decisive break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 51371 next.

    There might be some initial resistance from 41259 to limit upside at the first attempt. Break of 37485 support will bring consolidations in Bitcoin first. But pull back should be contained by 31815 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

    BoJ’s Noguchi: Just only beginning to envision inflation target achievement

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi emphasized the need for continuing ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan.

      Noguchi acknowledged on Saturday the impact of global inflation on Japan, stating, “It’s true the impact of elevated global inflation is reaching Japan’s economy with consumer inflation exceeding the BOJ’s 2% target since the spring of 2022.”

      However, Noguchi differentiated the nature of Japan’s inflation from that of the West, pointing out that, “the rise is mostly due to cost-push factors amid higher import prices,” contrasting with the wage-driven price increases in US and Europe. This distinction is crucial in understanding BoJ’s monetary policy approach.

      To effectively meet the BoJ’s inflation target, Noguchi emphasized “we must see price rises backed by sustained wage increases.”

      Despite significant wage hikes in this year’s spring wage negotiations, Noguchi believes that Japan is only at the beginning of its journey to reach its inflation target, stating, “we’ve only just reached a stage where the possibility of achieving our target has come into sight.”

      US ISM manufacturing unchanged at 46.7, corresponds to -0.7% annualized GDP contraction

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        US ISM Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 in November, missed expectation of 47.7. Looking at some details, new orders rose from 45.5 to 48.3. Production fell from 50.4 to 48.5. Employment fell from 46.8 to 45.8. Prices rose from 45.1 to 49.9.

        ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the November reading (46.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.7 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

        Full ISM Manufacturing release here.

        Canada’s employment rises 24.9k in Nov, unemployment rate ticks up to 5.8%

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Canada’s employment grew 24.9k in November, better than expectation of 14.2k.

          Unemployment rate rose from 5.7% to 5.8%, matched expectations, and continuing an upward trend observed since April.

          Total hours worked fell -0.7% mom and were up 1.3% on a year-over-year basis.

          On a year-over-year basis, average hourly wages rose 4.8%, similar to the increase recorded in October.

          Full Canada employment release here.

          UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.2, recovery remains elusive

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.2 in November, up notably from October’s 44.8. This marks the third consecutive month of rising PMI figures and the highest level since May.

            Despite these gains, it is important to note that the PMI has remained below the neutral 50 mark for 16 consecutive months, indicating a prolonged period of contraction in the manufacturing sector.

            Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented, “Although the downturn in production eased sharply in November, the latest PMI report brings little festive cheer when the finer details are considered.”

            Dobson pointed out that despite improvement in production, the sector faces ongoing challenges. These include sharp declines in new order inflows and exports, along with clients destocking, which collectively suggest that a robust and sustained revival in meaningful growth is not yet on the horizon.

            Dobson also noted, “Manufacturers are preparing for tough times ahead, with their continued caution leading to cutbacks in staffing, inventories, and purchasing.”

            Full UK PMI Manufacturing final release here.

            Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 44.2, continuing contraction, but slower

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              Eurozone’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 44.2 in November, up from October’s 43.1, reaching a six-month high. The report highlights reduction in the rate of decline for new orders, stocks, and purchasing activity, yet underscores a concerning trend of increasing employment cuts.

              Breaking down the performance across Eurozone member states, Greece emerged as the only country in expansion, with PMI of 50.9. Ireland remained stable at 50.0. In contrast, other major economies like Spain (46.3), the Netherlands (44.9), Italy (44.4), France (42.9), Germany (42.6), and Austria (42.2) all registered figures indicative of ongoing contraction in their manufacturing sectors.

              Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said, “November has not been the prettiest.” He noted the continuous decline in output and the trend of workforce reductions extending for six months. While acknowledging slight improvements in various sub-indices, de la Rubia pointed out that these are insufficient to signal a robust upward trend, describing them as “timid” and lacking the necessary dynamism.

              De la Rubia also highlighted the divergent conditions within the top four Eurozone economies, with Germany uniquely showing a softening in output decline. In contrast, the situation appears to be worsening in other major economies.

              He emphasized, “A crucial barometer for the recovery’s onset will likely be a more synchronized upward movement in the economies PMI indexes, leading to a self-reinforcing reciprocal push among countries.”

              Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

              Swiss GDP rises 0.3% qoq in Q3, services provides support

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                Swiss GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 0.1% qoq. SECO said: “The international environment remains challenging, with value added in industry stagnating accordingly. However, the service sector was once again able to provide a support.”

                Full Swiss GDP release here.

                China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing rises to 50.7, back to growth amidst challenges

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  China’s Caixin PMI Manufacturing index climbed from 49.5 to 50.7 in November, surpassing the expected 49.3. According to Caixin’s release, this improvement is attributed to sustained rise in total new work, which helped push production back into growth territory. Additionally, there was softer reduction in employment and uptick in business confidence, reaching a four-month high.

                  Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, noted, “Overall, the manufacturing sector improved in November.” He cited several factors contributing to this improvement: expansion in supply and demand, stable prices, improved logistics, increased purchasing quantities, and a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers. However, he also pointed out some ongoing challenges, such as sluggish external demand, weak employment, and cautious inventory management by manufacturers.

                  Wang also commented on the broader macroeconomic context, stating, “The macro economy has been recovering.” He observed improvements in household consumption, industrial production, and market expectations. Despite these positive signs, he cautioned that both domestic and foreign demand remain insufficient, employment pressures are high, and the economic recovery is still searching for a solid footing.

                  Full China Caixin PMI Manufacturing release here.

                  Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.3, contraction continues yet optimistic

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    November saw Japan’s Manufacturing PMI finalized at 48.3, a slight decline from October’s 48.7. This figure, reported by S&P Global, indicates a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, with more pronounced decreases in output and new order inflows. The PMI reaching its lowest since February signals a challenging phase for the sector, primarily due to weakened demand both domestically and internationally.

                    Usamah Bhatti of S&P Global Market Intelligence commented on the sector’s performance, noting, “The headline PMI slipped deeper into contraction territory, largely due to quicker deteriorations in output and new order inflows.” He identified weak customer demand across both domestic and international markets as key factors behind this downturn.

                    On the inflation front, although inflationary pressures remained high, there was a noticeable easing. Input cost inflation slowed down to a three-month low, and selling price inflation reduced to its softest since July 2021. This easing in inflation suggests some relief in cost pressures for manufacturers.

                    Despite the current contraction, Japanese manufacturers are holding onto a sense of optimism for the future. Bhatti emphasized this positive outlook, stating, “Manufacturers remained optimistic that muted demand and production conditions would lift over the coming year.” This confidence is underpinned by expectations of a boost in demand, spurred by new product launches, particularly in the semiconductor sector.

                    Full Japan PMI manufacturing release here.

                    RBNZ’s Hawkesby highlights inflation pressure from record migration

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      RBNZ Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby provided insights into the central bank’s current monetary policy and the economic outlook in an interview today. He discussed timing of rate cuts, and impact of rising immigration.

                      RBNZ’s revised forecast does not foresee rate cuts until mid-2025. Explaining the rationale behind the delayed rate cuts, Hawkesby emphasized the need for RBNZ to ensure that inflation expectations are securely re-anchored. He also pointed out that the New Zealand economy had experienced overheating and now requires a period of cooling, marked by a negative output gap.

                      The interview also highlighted the impact of recent demographic shifts on the The RBNZ had initially perceived rising immigration as a mitigating factor for inflation risk, considering its potential to alleviate labor shortages and reduce wage pressure. However, Hawkesby revealed that the immigration surge has been more significant than anticipated, now contributing to increased demand in the economy.

                      Hawkesby remarked, “Net migration has peaked at higher levels, so that’s news in itself, important news.” He further explained that the “demand-side impacts” of this trend are becoming more evident. He added, “The fact you have got to house a bigger population and the impact that that has, particularly on rental inflation and things like that.”

                      New Zealand’s population witnessed a substantial increase of 2.7% in the year through September, the largest in over three decades, with net annual immigration reaching a record high of 118,835.

                      WTI nears 80 psychological barrier, awaiting confirmation of OPEC+ deal

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Oil market is extending near-term recovery today, driven by recent reports that OPEC+ has reached a preliminary agreement to cut oil production by over 1 million barrels per day. This development, reported by two OPEC+ sources to Reuters, has sparked optimism among traders and investors, leading to an extension in the near-term recovery of oil prices.

                        The proposed reduction is significant, as it includes Saudi Arabia’s continuation of its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd, which has been in effect since July. Additionally, the deal involves further contributions from other OPEC+ members, marking a concerted effort to stabilize oil prices amidst global economic uncertainties.

                        From technical analysis standpoint, WTI crude oil is now eyeing key resitsance level at 79.98, which is close to 80 psycholgoical level. Decisive break there will argue that whole corrective fall from 95.50 has completed with three waves down to 72.65. In this case, stronger rebound should be seen back to 81.77/91.07 resistance zone in the near term.

                        The momentum for this potential rebound in oil prices hinges on confirmation of the OPEC+ deal. Should the agreement be officially confirmed, it could act as a catalyst, triggering further upward movement in oil prices.

                        Fed’s Daly: Inflation hedge unnecessary, dismisses rate cuts notion

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in an interview with Germany’s Börsen-Zeitung newspaper, expressed confidence in the current state of monetary policy, stating that “policy is in a very good place” as Fed has “raised the key interest rate significantly.”

                          She further mentioned, “We don’t need an insurance mentality now, where we hedge against rising inflation. We should simply be patient and remain vigilant.”

                          Regarding future rate adjustments, Daly clarified, “I’m not thinking about rate cuts at all right now.” She emphasized her current focus on evaluating whether the current level of monetary tightening is sufficient to restore price stability.

                          Daly also provided an optimistic view of the economy, noting, “Our inflation data are improving and our real economy has not stalled.” She added, “I don’t see a recession on the horizon at the moment.”

                          Canada’s GDP up 0.1% mom in Sep, down -0.3% qoq in Q3

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% mom in September, matched expectations. Goods-producing industries grew 0.3% mom, leading the growth with a first increase in six months. Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged. Overall, 10 of 20 industrial sectors increased. Advance information indicates that GDP rose 0.2% mom in October.

                            In Q3, GDP fell -0.3% qoq, reversing Q2’s 0.3% qoq growth. The decrease in international exports and slower inventory accumulation were partially offset by increases in government spending and housing investment. Final domestic demand increased 0.3%, following a similar increase in the second quarter.

                            Full Canada monthly and quarterly GDP releases

                            US initial jobless claims rose to 218k, continuing claims hits near 2-yr high

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              US initial jobless claims rose 7k to 218k in the week ending November 25, above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -500 to 220k.

                              Continuing claims rose 86k to 1927k in the week ending November 18, highest since November 27, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 29k to 1866k, highest since December 11, 2021.

                              Full US jobless claims release here.

                              US PCE price index slows to 3%, core PCE down to 3.5%, match expectations

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                US personal income rose 0.2% mom or USD 57.1B in October, matched expectations. Persona spending rose 0.2% mom or USD 41.2B, matched expectations.

                                Headline PCE price index rose less than 0.1% mom. Excluding food and energy, core PCE price index rose 0.2% mom. Prices for goods fell -0.3% mom while prices for services rose 0.2% mom. Food prices rose 0.2% mom and energy prices fell -2.6% mom.

                                From the same month one year ago, headline PCE price index slowed from 3.4% yoy to 3.0% yoy, matched expectations. Core PCE price index slowed from 3.7% yoy to 3.5% yoy, matched expectations. Goods prices was up 0.2% yoy while services prices rose 4.4% yoy. Food prices rose 2.4% yoy and energy prices fell -4.8% yoy.

                                Full US personal income and outlays release here.

                                Eurozone CPI falls more than expected to 2.4% in Nov, core CPI down to 3.6%

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Eurozone CPI slowed notably from 2.9% yoy to 2.4% yoy in November, below expectation of 2.7% yoy. CPI core ( excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) slowed from 4.2% yoy to 3.6% yoy, below expectation of 3.9% yoy.

                                  Looking at the main components, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (6.9%, compared with 7.4% in October), followed by services (4.0%, compared with 4.6% in October), non-energy industrial goods (2.9%, compared with 3.5% in October) and energy (-11.5%, compared with -11.2% in October).

                                  Full Eurozone CPI release here.

                                  Swiss KOF rose to 96.7, moderate economic outlook

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, a key indicator for forecasting the economy’s direction, has shown a slight improvement in November, rising from 95.1 to 96.7. This rise slightly exceeded market expectations, which were set at 96.2.

                                    According to KOF Swiss Economic Institute, since mid-2023, the barometer has stabilized, though it remains at a level below the historical average. This stabilization indicates moderate outlook for the Swiss economy in the near future.

                                    The increase in the KOF Barometer can primarily be attributed to positive developments in manufacturing sector and other services sector.

                                    However, not all sectors are signaling positive trends. Indicators for hospitality industry and finance and insurance sector are showing slightly negative signals.

                                    Full Swiss KOF release here.

                                    BoJ’s Nakamura: More time needed before altering ultra-easy monetary stance

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura, in a speech to business leaders today, emphasized that Japan has not yet reached a point where it can confidently assert that the sustained and stable achievement of BoJ’s 2% inflation target, along with corresponding wage growth, is within reach. He added that the current inflation in Japan is primarily driven by “cost-push factors”.

                                      In light of this assessment, he said BoJ “must patiently maintain current monetary easing for the time being.” Some more time is needed before adjusting the policy.

                                      Nevertheless, Nakamura expressed a positive outlook on Japan’s economy, describing it as recovering moderately. He also anticipates that this moderate recovery will be accompanied by increases in wages, which could play a crucial role in sustaining economic growth and achieving the inflation target.

                                      China’s manufacturing PMI slips further to 49.4, indicating continued contraction

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI slightly declined from 49.5 to 49.4 in November, marking the weakest reading since December 2022 and falling below market expectation of 49.6. This decline indicates that China’s manufacturing sector has been struggling to maintain consistent growth, having been in contraction for five consecutive months since April, briefly returning to expansion in September, and then slipping back into contraction in October.

                                        NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe attributed this downturn to several factors, including “traditional off-season” effects in some manufacturing industries and “insufficient market demand”. This explanation points to both cyclical and demand-driven challenges impacting the manufacturing sector.

                                        Within manufacturing PMI, there was a drop in new-orders subindex to 49.4 from 49.5, further reflecting the demand-side struggles. Additionally, new-export-orders subindex fell to 46.3, down from 46.8, indicating challenges in external markets and potentially reflecting global economic conditions.

                                        PMI Non-Manufacturing also witnessed a decrease, moving from 50.6 to 50.2, which was below expected 51.1. However, within the non-manufacturing PMI, construction subindex showed an improvement, rising to 55 from 53.5. The official composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and services, fell to 50.4 from 50.7.

                                        Japan’s mixed economic signals: Industrial production up, retail sales growth slows

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Japan’s economy presents a mixed picture based on the latest data for October 2023. Industrial production saw a notable increase, rising 1.0% mom, exceeding expectations of a 0.7% increase.

                                          However, manufacturers surveyed by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry have a mixed outlook. They expect industrial output to decrease by -0.3% mom in November but anticipate a significant climb of 3.2% mom in December. This forecast points to short-term fluctuations but overall optimism towards the year’s end.

                                          In contrast to the industrial sector, retail sales figures were less encouraging. Retail sales in October rose by 4.2% yoy, falling short of the expected 5.9% yoy increase. Despite this slower growth, retail sales have continued to mark annual gains for 20 consecutive months.

                                          However, a month-over-month analysis reveals a downturn, with retail sales falling by -1.6% in October from September, ending a three-month streak of gains.

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