A key takeaway from FOMC minutes from October 31-November 1 meeting is the consensus on proceeding with caution, as indicated by the unanimous agreement that “the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully.”

The minutes also emphasized Fed’s readiness to implement further tightening measures if the progress toward its inflation target is deemed insufficient. This stance is aligned with Fed’s ongoing commitment to combatting inflation, as reflected in the sentiment that “further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate if incoming information indicated that progress toward the Committee’s inflation objective was insufficient.”

The committee members were also unanimous in their view that restrictive policy stance should be maintained until inflation shows a sustainable decline towards Fed’s target. This highlights Fed’s focus on ensuring that inflationary pressures are adequately managed before considering any policy easing.

However, a notable shift in the committee’s outlook was observed in the latest minutes. The previous stance, which suggested that “one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate,” was conspicuously absent in the latest document. This omission may signal a slight softening in the FOMC’s hawkish stance, indicating a potential pivot in future policy decisions.

Full FOMC minutes here.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, in an interview with Fox Business overnight, noted the positive aspects of the current economic situation, stating, the economy is “still growing” while unemployment is “still 3.9%”, and “inflation does to be settling”. “he added, “all that’s good”.

Despite these encouraging signs, Barkin emphasized that Fed’s work on bringing inflation down is far from complete. “But the job’s not done, and so you have to keep on until you get the job done, and we’ll see where we land,” he remarked.

Central to Barkin’s focus, and by extension, Fed’s, is the objective of returning inflation to the central bank’s target. “Inflation convincingly coming back to target — that’s my marker. And you can get there a lot of different ways,” Barkin elaborated.

He also expressed a desire to see a return to the pre-pandemic economic environment, where excessive price increases were not commonly used as a management strategy. “But I’m still looking to be convinced that price-setters in this economy have gotten back to where they were three or four years ago, which was an understanding that above-normal price increases just weren’t a management lever.”

In a CNBC interview overnight, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledged, “We’re making progress on inflation, discernible progress. We need to see more of that.”

But she also highlighted the necessity of observing more concrete data to confirm that inflation is indeed on a timely path back to the desired level.

In her metaphorical reference to the “crow’s nest”, a vantage point on a ship used for spotting distant objects, Mester likened Fed’s current position.

“We’re at the crow’s nest. What does the crow’s nest let you do? It lets you look out on the horizon and see where the data is coming in, where the economy is evolving.”

As for her personal stance on the direction of monetary policy, “I haven’t assessed that yet. Where I think we are right now is we’re basically in a very good spot for policy.”

Fed Governor Lisa Cook addressed the delicate balance between sustaining economic growth and managing inflation in her conference remarks overnight. Cook acknowledged the possibility of achieving a “soft landing” for the US. economy, highlighting the ongoing disinflationary trends and robust labor market conditions. However, she was quick to note that such an outcome is not guaranteed.

“A ‘soft landing’ is possible, with continued disinflation and a strong labor market, but it is not assured,” Cook stated. She elaborated on the complexities noting, “I see risks as two-sided, requiring us to balance the risk of not tightening enough against the risk of tightening too much.”

She also pointed out the current economic resilience, saying, “The economy is still growing and consumers are still spending,” which could potentially maintain demand-driven pressures in the market. Such momentum, according to Cook, could keep the economy and labor market tight, consequently slowing the disinflation process.

However, Cook also expressed concern over the potential negative impacts of aggressive policy measures, adding, “But I am also attuned to the risk of an unnecessarily sharp decline in economic activity and employment.”

Full remarks of Fed’s Cook here.