US ISM non-manufacturing rose to 45.4, corresponds to -1.1% annualized fall in GDP

    ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 45.4 in May, up from 41.8, slightly above expectation of 43.0. Production improved notably from 26.0 to 41.0, so was new orders, from 32.9 to 41.0. Employment edged up from 30.0 to 31.8. But these three components remained well below 50 handle.

    ISM also noted: “The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for May (45.4 percent) corresponds to a 1.1-percent decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

    Full release here.

    Fed Bostic: Events today in the Ukraine are on all of our minds

      Atlanta Fed bank President Raphael Bostic said, “events today in the Ukraine are on all of our minds. We’ll be watching this closely here in Atlanta and across the Federal Reserve system to assess the economic and financial impacts,”

      He still thinks may need to hikes four or more times this year if high inflation persists. However, “I am really open to adjusting this as we get more clarity on how the economy is evolving…the data may come in perhaps more pessimistic in terms of how well we are doing on inflation and if it does I’m going to move my view, maybe 4 (hikes), and depending on how things go it may be more than that.”

      US CPI rose to 7.0% yoy in Dec, core CPI rose to 5.5% yoy

        US all-item CPI accelerated from 6.8% yoy to 7.0% yoy in December, matched expectations. The annual rate was the largest increase since June 1982. Core CPI accelerated from 4.9% yoy to 5.5% yoy, above expectation of 5.4% yoy. That’s the highest level since February 1991. The energy index rose 29.3% yoy while food index rose 6.3% yoy.

        Full release here.

        UK tabled fair and reasonable compromise Brexit proposal to EU

          UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed in the Conservatives’ annual conference that he’s tabled his “fair and reasonable compromise” to the EU. And warned that if EU doesn’t accept it, the alternative is no-deal Brexit. He said, “We are tabling what I believe are constructive and reasonable proposals which provide a compromise for both sides. Let us be in no doubt that the alternative is no deal.”

          Johnson noted that the proposals involve no checks at or near the Irish border. And, “By a process of renewable democratic consent by the executive and assembly of Northern Ireland. We will go further and protect the existing regulatory arrangements for farmers and other businesses on both sides of the border.” No further details were given.

          US oil inventories dropped -6.6m barrels, WTI rally lost momentum but further rise still in favor

            US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -6.6m barrels in the week ending February 5, smaller than expectation of -0.9m barrels. At 469.0m barrels, oil inventories are just about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 4.3m barrels. Distillate inventories dropped -1.7m barrels. Propane/propylene inventories dropped -4.5m barrels. Commercial petroleum inventories dropped -11.2m barrels.

            WTI oil price rally continued this week and met 100% projection of 47.24 to 53.92 from 51.58 at 58.26 already. Though, upside momentum diminished mildly since then, as seen in 4 hour MACD. For now, further rise is still expected as long as 57.18 minor support holds. Sustained break of 58.26 will confirm underlying momentum. Some upside acceleration could then be seen to 161.8% projection at 62.38. However, break of 57.18 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back.

            Fed Rosengren: If Trump’s trade war causes slowdown, Fed has the tool to deal with it

              Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said Fed is well prepared to react if Trump’s trade war with China causes slowdown in the economy. He said, “if the impact of the tariffs – and whatever financial market reaction to those tariffs is – causes more of a slowdown, then we do have the tools available to us, including lower interest rates”.

              But for now, “it’s hard for the Fed to react until we have better information, so in terms of us viewing our policies as being patient, I’m not sure this alters our view of that until we have a better sense of whether this is going to have more long-lasting effects,” Rosengren added.

              Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the “relative to China, the US is in a very strong position.” “”Not only is our economy bigger, our economy is much less sensitive to trade. Trade is important to the U.S. economy, but it’s much more important to the Chinese economy, just as a share of its economy,” he added.

              Hence, Kashkari said “if there’s a tit-for-tat strategy, and I’m not advocating it, but a tit-for-tat strategy would seem to lean toward the U.S. strength rather than the China strength.”

              China condemns US blackmailing after Trump threatens with extra tariffs on USD 200B Chinese products

                Trump ordered US Trade Representative to identify USD 200B worth of Chinese products for additional 10% tariffs. It noted in the statement that “the initial tariffs that the President asked us to put in place were proportionate and responsive to forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft by the Chinese. It is very unfortunate that instead of eliminating these unfair trading practices China said that it intends to impose unjustified tariffs targeting U.S. workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses. At the President’s direction, USTR is preparing the proposed tariffs to offset China’s action.”

                Full USTR statement.

                The Chinese Ministry of Commerce vowed to fight back with “qualitative” and “quantitative” for any additional tariffs. The MOFCOM condemned to initiative of imposing extra tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese goods. It said in a statement today that “Such a practice of extreme pressure and blackmailing deviates from the consensus reached by both sides on multiple occasions, and is a disappointment for the international community.” And, “the United States has initiated a trade war and violated market regulations, and is harming the interests of not just the people of China and the U.S., but of the world.”

                MOFCOM statement (in simplified Chinese).

                New Zealand BusinessNZ PMI dropped to 51.7, not getting too carried away with recovery

                  New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped from 54.0 to 51.7 in October. Production dropped from 56.7 to 51.1. New orders dropped from 58.1 to 52.4. But employment rose from 51.7 to 52.6.

                  BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the sector remains in a state of flux, although still managing to keep in positive territory.

                  BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that “October’s PMI serves as a gentle reminder of not getting too carried away with the sense of recovery, even if the worst of COVID’s impacts can be assumed to be behind us”.

                  Full release here.

                  China coronavirus deaths hit 563, Yuan recovers with hesitation

                    According to China’s National Health Commission, on February 5, number of confirmed coronavirus cases in China rose 3694 to 28018. Death tolls rose 73 to 563. Serious cases rose 640 to 3859. Suspected cases rose 5328 to 24702. Number of people tracked rose 30659 to 282813. Outside of China, over 25 countries reported confirmed cases, with 35 in Japan, 28 in Singapore, 25 in Thailand and 11 in Taiwan.

                    The fears in the financial markets subsided rather quickly this week, including Yuan’s exchange rate. USD/CNH formed a temporary top at 7.0226 and retreated notably. Nevertheless, the pull back is so far relatively shallow and is contained above 6.9526 minor support. Further rise remains mildly in favor. Sustained break of near term channel resistance will indicate bullish reversal for 7.0867 resistance. However, break of 6.9526 will indicate completion of rebound from 6.8452 and keep the decline from 7.1953 intact. The next move will depend on the breakthrough in the coronavirus outbreak, in either way.

                    Into US session: Sterling weakest despite solid job data, Euro follows

                      Entering into US session, Sterling is the weakest one for today despite solid employment data. UK unemployment rate stayed at 45-year low while wage growth accelerated. But that’s overshadowed by renewing no-deal Brexit fear. Both runners Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt rejected Irish backstop in any part of Brexit deal. Such position will make Brexit negotiations very tough ahead. Euro is the second weakest as German ZEW Economic Sentiment deteriorated further in July.

                      On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one as CPI accelerated in Q2 as expected. Dollar follows as the second strongest. However, the greenback will face tests from retail sales and industrial production data.

                      In Europe, currently:

                      • FTSE is up 0.43%.
                      • DAX is up 0.19%.
                      • CAC is up 0.51%.
                      • German 10-year yield is down -0.013 at -0.265.

                      Earlier in Asia:

                      • Nikkei dropped -0.69%.
                      • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.23%.
                      • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.16%.
                      • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.36%.
                      • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0071 to -0.121.

                      Fed Bullard: Weak data probably temporary, premature to contemplate rate cut

                        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said overnight that the “spate of weaker data” is “probably mostly temporary”. And, the “notion of a rebound in the second quarter is a good forecast:. Meanwhile, it’s “premature to contemplate a rate cut here”. He added “you do want to watch the data closely”, and “you won’t really know that until you get to the July time frame.” To him, that would be the next time to revisit rate cut.

                        On yield curve inversion, Bullard said “you would have to get a wider variety of spreads to be inverted — the two-year/10-year in particular”. Also, he noted ” it would have to stay inverted and be meaningfully inverted for awhile, a matter of months or even quarters, before you would say it that it was sending a negative signal that’s in the same sense that it did historically.”

                        Ethereum tumbling, bitcoin follows

                          Ethereum plummets further today and the post “merge surge” decline extends. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1474.00 minor resistance holds. Next near term target is 100% projection of 2028.90 to 1418.47 from 1787.45 at 1177.02. Firm break there could bring downside acceleration through 878.5 to 161.8% projection at 799.77.

                          Bitcoin’s development is even worse. Deeper decline is expected as long as 20167 resistance holds, for 17575 low. Break there will target 100% projection of 25198 to 18518 from 22764 at 16084.

                          Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.7, toughest spell since 2013 continued

                            Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.7 in May, unrevised, down from April’s 47.9. That’s also very close to six year low at 47.5 made in March. Looking at the member states, German PMI manufacturing was worst at 44.3. Austria reading dropped to 50-month low at 49.5. Italy reading improved to 8-month high at 49.5 but stayed below 50. Spain reading dropped to 3-month low at 50.2. France reading improved to 3-month high at 50.6, barely expanding.

                            Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                            “Euro area manufacturing remained in contraction during May, suggesting the sector will act as a drag on the wider economy in the second quarter.

                            “A fourth successive monthly drop in output and further steep decline in new orders underscored how the sector remains in its toughest spell since 2013. Companies are tightening their belts, cutting back on spending and hiring. Input buying, inventories and employment are all now in decline as manufacturers worry about being exposed to a further downturn in demand.

                            “That said, although the headline PMI fell in May, the decline masked slower rates of decline for both output and new orders. The forward-looking orders- to- inventory ratio also picked up for a second month running to reach a six-month high, the improvement of which augurs well for the downturn to moderate in June.

                            “However, trade wars, slumping demand in the auto sector, Brexit and wider geopolitical uncertainty all remained commonly cited risks to the outlook, and all have the potential to derail any stabilisation of the manufacturing sector.”

                            Full release here.

                            Also released, Swiss CPI slowed to 0.6% yoy in May, down from 0.7% yoy and matched expectation. Swiss PMI manufacturing rose 0.2 to 48.6 in May, below expectation of 48.8.

                            EU comments on US auto tariffs investigations full statement

                              Earlier today, Politico reported EU’s comments on US section 232 cars investigation submitted to US Department of Commerce last Friday. Below is the full statement from European Commission. Also, EU requested to participate in public hearing on July 19/20.

                              EU comments on US section 232 Cars investigation

                              The European Union has on Friday 29 June submitted written comments to the US Department of Commerce in the framework of the on-going Section 232 National Security Investigation of imports of automobiles, including cars, SUVs, vans, light trucks and automotive parts.

                              The EU has also requested to participate in the public hearing to be held by the Department of Commerce scheduled for 19 and 20 July.

                              The EU takes the view, as was the case of the section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, that this current investigation lacks legitimacy, factual basis and violates international trade rules. The EU reiterates its firm opposition to the proliferation of measures taken on supposed national security grounds for the purposes of economic protection. This development harms trade, growth and jobs in the US and abroad, weakens the bonds with friends and allies, and shifts the attention away from the shared strategic challenges that genuinely threaten the market-based Western economic model.

                              The EU written comments relate to various areas on which input was requested by the US Department of Commerce to conduct its current investigation. The EU submits that:

                              1. Imports of European automobiles in the US are stable, in line with US production and responding to market signals. Automobile imports from the EU do not threaten or impair the health of the US industry and economy. The EU and US industry specialise in largely different market segments and over the last 5 years imports from the EU have been stable and correlated to US general GDP growth.

                              2. There is no economic threat to the US automobile industry which is healthy, having steadily expanded domestic production in the last 10 years. Imposing restrictive measures would undermine the current positive trends of the US automobile and automotive parts sector and negatively impact US GDP by up to 13-14 billion USD.

                              3. EU car companies contribute significantly to US welfare and employment. They are well integrated in the US value chain and export about 60 % of automobiles to third countries including the EU, contributing to improving the US trade balance. They provide 120,000 direct upstream jobs in manufacturing plants and 420,000 jobs with dealers. Trade restrictions are likely to lead to higher input costs for US based producers, thus in effect a tax on the American people.

                              4. EU car companies foster innovation through research and develop the local workforce. Rather than posing a threat to national security, they are a driver for securing long-term economic stability and competitiveness. Almost a fifth of research and development expenditures in the US is derived from foreign-owned subsidiaries. The EU automotive industry also actively contributes to enhancing the skillsets of the US workforce.

                              5. The impact on the US economy will be aggravated significantly by the likely countermeasures of US Trading partners, as evidenced by the reaction to the US section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. On the basis of the current section 232 investigation into automobile and automotive parts, US trade restrictive measures could result in a very significant volume of US exports affected, estimated at USD 294 billion (or around 19 % of US total exports in 2017).

                              6. Trade restrictive measures would be contrary to international trade rules. There are no exceptions under the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) that justify import restrictions by a developed country to protect a domestic industry against foreign competition, unless in the form of permitted trade remedy measures. Although the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) provides for security exceptions, the scope of these exceptions has been circumscribed carefully for specific situations and conditions, which are absent in this case.

                              7. There is no national security threat from imports of automobile and automotive parts. Without prejudice, we underline that the Department of Commerce’s analysis of national security must be narrowly tailored to focus on direct threats to national security, in particular defense applications. US needs for vehicles or vehicle parts for defence or military purposes, mainly Light Tactical Vehicles, appear to be covered by US-based specialised suppliers. These operate in a niche market that is independent and unrelated to the US automobile industry. As only products from US based manufacturers are used by the US military, any trade restrictions imposed on the passenger car, light trucks and car parts market cannot be justified on national security grounds.

                              Gold struggles in range after recovery capped by 55 D EMA

                                Gold’s rebound from 1810.07 lost momentum at 1874.88, after hitting 55 day EMA. But subsequent retreat is kept above 1832.40 minor support holds. The corrective rise could still extend higher. Above 1874.88 will target 61.8% retracement of 1959.16 to 1810.07 at 1902.20. But upside should be limited there. .

                                Overall, we’re seeing fall from 1959.16 as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 2075.18. Hence, another decline is expected after current recovery from 1810.07 completes. Break of 1832.40 will likely send gold through 1810.07 to 1764.31 support and below.

                                New Zealand GDP shrank -1.6% qoq in Q1, biggest impact to be seen in Q2

                                  New Zealand GDP shrank -1.6% qoq in Q1, worst than expectation of -1.0% qoq. That’s also the largest decline in 29% as the initial effects of coronavirus restrictions impacted on economic activity. “The 1.6 percent fall surpassed quarterly falls during the global financial crisis in the late 2000s,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said. “It is the largest quarterly fall since the 2.4 percent decline in the March 1991 quarter.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Finance Minister Grant Robertson said “the biggest impact of the global recession and Alert Level 4 public health restrictions will be seen in the current June quarter.” He added, “now, our focus is on protecting jobs and supporting the economy to recover and rebuild through the investments made in Budget 2020 and by the COVID Response and Recovery Fund. By opening up the economy quicker than forecast, we’ve got a head start on our recovery.”

                                  AUD steady after RBA cut, AUD/JPY stays in down trend to 59.85

                                    Australian Dollar is relatively steady after the expected RBA  rate cut. AUD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 69.37 temporary low, formed after breaching 69.95 key support. Some consolidation could be seen, but upside is expected to be limited by 72.41 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 69.37 will target 100% projection of 80.71 to 69.95 from 76.54 at 65.78.

                                    In the bigger picture, AUD/JPY is staying in long term down trend from 105.42 (2013 high). Prior rejection by 55 week EMA is a clear sign of bearishness. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 76.54 resistance holds. Next medium term target is 100% projection of 102.83 to 72.39 from 90.29 at 59.85.

                                    Italy to spend EUR 5B on coronavirus support

                                      Deputy Economy Minister Laura Castelli indicated that the government will likely raise coronavirus support spending to EUR 5B. She added that it’s “necessary to raise the bar as much as possible, also considering the fact that Italy has registered a lower than expected deficit”.

                                      Economy Minister has promised fiscal stimulus of EUR 3.6B, including tax break and other measures. But that seems insufficient since Italy is now the third country that’s most affected by coronavirus pandemic, with 3089 cases and 107 deaths. Measures could include supporting parents to stay home to take care of their children, increase in healthcare funding and temporary redundancy benefits.

                                      It’s believed that the government is also considering to ask for a temporary suspension of EU’s European Stability and Growth Pact, which limits the country’s spending. Rome announced to close all schools and universities yesterday to control the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus.

                                      RBNZ hikes rate to 1%, starts managed bond sales, raised OCR peak forecast

                                        RBNZ raised OCR by 25bps to 1.00% as widely expected. Additionally, it will start to start reduction of the bond holdings under the Large Scale Asset Purchase program through “both bond maturities and managed sales.

                                        The central bank also said “further removal of monetary policy stimulus is expected over time given the medium-term outlook for growth and employment, and the upside risks to inflation.”

                                        In the minutes, it’s noted, “when deciding whether to move the OCR up by 25 or 50 basis points, many members saw this as a finely balanced decision.”

                                        However, firstly, the active sales of bond holdings may “put some upward pressure on longer-term interest rates”. Also, the OCR is expected to “peak at a higher level than assumed” at the November MPC. The OCR peak was raised to around 3.4% in 2024, compared to 2.6% in November review.

                                        Hence, the Committee came to a consensus of a 25bps hike, but “affirmed that it was willing to move the OCR in larger increments if required over coming quarters.”

                                        Full statement here.

                                        USD/JPY and USD/CAD downside breakout as dollar selling intensifies

                                          Both USD/JPY and USD/CAD broke out to the downside in European session, as Dollar selloff intensifies. Break of 102.87 support in USD/JPY confirms resumption of whole down trend from 111.71. Outlook will now stay bearish as long as 103.89 resistance holds. Such down trend should now extend to retest 101.18 low.

                                          USD/CAD’s break of 1.2688 also confirm resumption of the down trend from 1.4667. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2957 resistance holds. Next near term downside target is 100% projection of 1.3172 to 1.2688 from 1.2957 at 1.2473.