Japan’s industrial production took a hit in July, falling by a worse-than-expected -2.0% mom, versus consensus forecast of -1.4% mom. The seasonally adjusted production index stumbled to 103.6, based on 2020 base of 100.

Production was primarily pulled down by substantial drops in electronic parts and devices, which declined -by 5.1% mom. Also, production machinery output shrank by -4.8% mom, with semiconductor manufacturing equipment segment plunging a stark 16.4% mom. However, not all was grim. Production of automobiles showed a modest uptick of 0.6% mom, attributed to the easing of supply chain bottlenecks.

A Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry official remarked that the slump in output across various sectors was largely due to diminishing domestic and overseas orders. Consequently, METI has revised its assessment of industrial output from “showing signs of moderately picking up” to “fluctuated indecisively.”

Despite the grim industrial landscape, manufacturers surveyed by METI are optimistic, projecting a 2.6% rise in output for August and a 2.4% increase in September.

In contrast to the industrial sector’s lackluster performance, retail sales exhibited considerable strength. Sales surged 6.8% yoy in July, beating expectations of a 5.4% yoy increase. This marks the 17th consecutive month of expansion since March 2022. Additionally, retail sales increased 2.1% mom in July, recovering from a -0.6% mom decline in the previous month.

Japan’s job market showed unexpected signs of weakening in July, as the unemployment rate rose to 2.7%, defying expectations of remaining steady at June’s 2.5% level. This marks the first uptick in unemployment in four months. The data reveals that the number of employed workers decreased by -100k during the month, while the ranks of those without jobs swelled by 110k.

Adding to the concern, jobs-to-applicants ratio—a leading indicator of labor market health—dipped to 1.29 in July from 1.30. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, counter to median economist forecasts that predicted the ratio would remain flat. These figures indicate that there were only 129 job openings for every 100 applicants, a metric that is closely watched for signs of labor market tightness or slack.

In its latest monthly economic report, Japan Cabinet Office has lifted its assessment on exports for the first time since May. Exports, which previously displayed a “steady undertone,” are now characterized as showing “movements of picking up recently.”

Other key areas of the economy showed stable and positive trend. Private consumption and business investment are both on an “picking up”. Corporate profits have seen moderate improvement. Employment situation shows movements of improvement. Consumer prices are rising.

Looking ahead, the report expects the Japanese economy to sustain its moderate recovery, driven by enhancements in employment and income situations. However, it does underscore potential threats. The slowing pace of foreign economies, especially due to global monetary tightening and uncertainties about China’s economic direction, are identified as primary external risks to Japan’s growth trajectory.