Australia’s PMI Composite rises to 53.6, RBA might hike again in H2

    Australia’s PMI Manufacturing has nearly reached the neutral mark in April, jumping from 47.3 to 49.9. PMI Services edged higher from 54.2 to 54.4, contributing to PMI’s Composite rise from 53.3 to 53.6, marking a 24-month high and indicating the third consecutive month of expansion.

    Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank, said that Composite PMI has averaged 51.5 over Q1, a substantial improvement from 46.9 average in Q4 2023 and correlates with GDP growth of around 0.6% for the March quarter. Hogan suggested that if this trend persists, GDP growth could accelerate to approximately 0.8% in the following quarter.

    The results also suggest a cyclical recovery, rebounding from the consumer-led slowdown experienced in 2023. This recovery appears to be more robust than anticipated by RBA, suggesting that the economy is beginning to “wander off their ‘narrow path'”. This “narrow path” scenario envisages economic activity remaining subdued to ensure inflation eases back to target by late 2025

    “The RBA will likely be concerned that a pick-up in activity, before inflation returns to target, could threaten medium to long-term price stability,” Hogan added. “These results are inconsistent with interest rate reductions at any stage in the foreseeable future and raise the risk that the RBA may have to start hiking again at some stage over the back half of 2024.”

    Full Australia PMI release here.

    Germany’s BDI expects production decline and stagnant exports this year

      Germany’s industrial sector continues to faces another challenging year ahead, with Federation of German Industries (BDI) issuing a warning about the downturn in industrial production and the stagnation of exports for 2024. According to BDI’s latest forecasts, industrial production is anticipated to drop by -1.5% this year. Additionally, exports are expected to remain flat.

      BDI President Siegfried Russwurm highlighted the persistent struggles of the German industry, which has not fully recovered from “cost and demand shocks,” driven by spikes in energy prices and inflation pressures.

      Russwurm expressed concern over the long-term trend, noting that, despite some signs of a moderate recovery, the “overall production figures” have been following a “worrying downward trend” for several years.

       

      Copper’s momentum intensifies with trade sanctions with 4.7 level as pivotal marker

        Copper’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated significantly higher. The move was primarily driven by imposition of new trade sanctions by the UK and US, targeting Russian exports of key metals including aluminium, copper, and nickel to major commodity exchanges like LME and CME. This policy move, aimed at penalizing Russia for its actions in Ukraine, has effectively curtailed supplies of these metals, exerting upward pressure on prices.

        The underlying fundamentals of Copper have also been robust, shaped by a combination of supply-side challenges and a upturn in the global economy. Notably, rebound in China’s industrial activity has played a crucial role in bolstering market momentum. Additionally, disruptions at significant mining operations have tightened the supply further, adding to Copper’s momentum.

        From a speculative standpoint, the enthusiasm in the copper market is also palpable. According to recent LME data, hedge funds have increased their net long positions in Copper to the highest levels since February 2021. This influx of financial investments into copper futures suggests that prices may now be exceeding the actual market fundamentals, indicating a speculative bubble in formation.

        Technically, the strong break of 4.3556 resistance confirmed resumption of whole rise from 3.1314 (2022 low). Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 4.2645 support holds. Next target is 261.8% projection of 3.5021 to 3.9346 from 3.6324 at 4.7647.

        This level is close to 100% projection of 3.1314 to 4.3556 from 3.5021 at 4.7263, as well as long term channel resistance. The cluster resistance zone at around 4.7 would be crucial to decide whether Copper is already in a secular bull markets that’s ready to power through 5.000 psychological level.

        ECB’s Villeroy: We must not wait too much on interest rate cut

          ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, in a discussion with Les Echos, stressed that increase in oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East would not trigger a “mechanical” policy shift. Instead, the bank would carefully assess whether these increases significantly fuel core inflation and inflation expectations before deciding on any action.

          Villeroy made it clear that ECB is prepared to act without undue delay in lowering interest rates. “No — unless there is a surprise, we must not wait too much,” he said.

          “From the point we have sufficient confidence in the fact that we will meet the 2% inflation objective by next year, our duty is to minimize the cost in terms of activity and employment,” Villeroy said. “That is the sense of a first cut in June.”

          SNB’s Jordan cautions against using monetary policy to finance debt

            In an interview with SRF, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan stressed the critical issues of sluggish growth and the need for structural reforms. He underscored the importance of enhancing productivity to bolster economic growth across nations. Additionally, e highlighted the troubling high levels of debt and substantial deficits many countries are grappling with, which he deemed unsustainable in the long run.

            Jordan emphasized that correcting these fiscal imbalances is imperative for future economic stability. He warned against the misuse of monetary policy as a tool for financing state debts, asserting that such practices could lead to dire consequences.

            “It is very important that at the same time monetary policy remains geared towards price stability, rather than monetary policy being needed to finance debt, otherwise it will not end well,” Jordan cautioned.

            UK retail sales flat in Mar, misses expectations

              In the UK, retail sales volumes was unchanged in March, falling short of the modest 0.3% mom growth anticipated by analysts. The performance within the retail sector was varied: automotive fuel and non-food store sales saw increases of 3.2% and 0.5%, respectively, which were offset by declines in food stores and non-store retailers, dropping by 0.7% and 1.5%.

              On a quarterly basis, retail sales volumes rising 1.9% in the three months to March, a recovery attributed to the bounce back from particularly low sales volumes experienced during the Christmas shopping season.

              Full UK retail sale release here.

              Oil and safe havens rally amid new Middle East conflict

                Oil prices surges sharply in Asian session and there was a significant influx into safe-haven assets such as Gold, Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen.

                This market reaction was triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, following a report by ABC News on a retaliatory missile strike by Israel against Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s Fars news agency also reported that explosions were heard near the Isfahan airport,m even though the causes were unknown.

                The missile launches are continuation of hostilities following last Saturday when Iran targeted Israel with over 300 drones and missiles, a majority of which were intercepted by Israel and its allies.

                WTI oil’s strong rebound today suggests that corrective pullback from 87.84 has completed at 81.62 already. Further rise would be seen to retest 87.84 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 67.79 and target 61.8% projection of 71.32 to 87.84 from 81.62 at 91.82 next.

                Also, note that rise from 67.79 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 63.67 (2023 low). Hence, break of 95.50 is possible in the medium term, depending on whether WTI could sustain its upside momentum.

                Japan’s CPI core slows to 2.6% in Mar, CPI core-core down to 2.9%

                  In March, Japan observed a subtle cooling in core inflation, though levels persistently exceed BoJ’s target.

                  Core CPI, which excludes food prices, slowed from 2.8% yoy to 2.6% yoy, slightly under the expectation of 2.7% yoy, marking a continued stretch above BoJ’s 2% target for two full years.

                  Further detail is seen in the core-core CPI, excluding both food and energy, which decreased from 3.2% yoy to 2.9% yoy. This marks the seventh consecutive month of deceleration and brings this measure below 3% level for the first time since November 2022.

                  Meanwhile, headline CPI dipped slightly from 2.8% year-on-year to 2.7%, aligning with analysts’ forecasts.

                  BoJ’s Ueda: Impact of weak Yen on inflation could lead to policy shift

                    During a press conference today, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the potential economic repercussions of the persistently weak yen, particularly its effect on trend inflation through increased costs of imported goods.

                    “There’s a possibility the weak yen could push up trend inflation through rises in imported goods prices,” Ueda noted, indicating that such a scenario “might lead to a change in monetary policy.”

                    At the same occasion, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki pointed out that exchange rates are not solely influenced by interest rate differentials. Various other factors, such as each country’s current account balance, market participants’ sentiment, and speculative trade, drive currency moves,” Suzuki explained.

                    Fed’s Bostic emphasizes patience on rate cuts, open to rate hikes

                      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic highlighted his readiness to maintain the current rate levels through the end of the year. “I’m comfortable being patient,” he noted at an event overnight. “I’m of the view that things are going to be slow enough this year that we won’t be in a position to reduce our rates towards … the end of the year.”

                      He pointed out the importance of continued job creation and wage growth that outpaces inflation as key metrics guiding his decision-making process. “If we can keep those things going, and inflation has the signs that it is moving to that target, I’m happy to just stay where we are,” he explained.

                      However, Bostic also warned of the potential need to adjust rates upward if inflation trends unfavorably, diverging from the Fed’s 2% target. “If inflation starts moving in the opposite direction away from our target, I don’t think we’ll have any other option but to respond to that,” he stated.

                      “I’d have to be open to increasing rates,” he added.

                       

                      Fed’s Kashkari suggests rate cuts may wait until next year

                        Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Fox News Channel that he wants to be “patient” regarding monetary easing. He added that the first rate cut could “potentially” be inappropriate until 2025.

                        “I’m in the view of, we need to wait and see, be patient as long as it takes, until we get convinced that inflation is on its way back down to 2%,” he said.

                        Greene: BoE in trade-off territory, rate cuts not near

                          BoE MPC member Megan Greene said at an event overnight that rate cut is no on the immediate horizon. She characterized that BoE is in a “trade-off territory”, in an environment of persistent high inflation coupled with weak growth in the UK.

                          “We have to weigh the risk of doing too much against the risk of doing too little,” Greene explained.

                          She expressed a particular concern that being too cautious could lead to more severe consequences down the line: “In my mind, doing too little is the bigger risk because you end up having to hike rates even higher in the end and could end up generating an even bigger recession,” she noted.

                          Fed’s Williams: No urgency to cut interest rates

                            At the Semafor World Economy Summit today, New York Fed President John Williams there is no urgency in current monetary policy stance.

                            “We’ve got interest rates in a place that is moving us gradually to our goals. So I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut interest rates. I think monetary policy is doing exactly what we would like to see,” he said.

                            Williams underscored that while an increase in rates is not the expected course, it remains a possibility should the economic indicators necessitate such action to achieve Fed’s inflation objectives.

                            US initial jobless claims unchanged at 212k, vs exp 214k

                              US initial claims was unchanged at 212k in April 13, slightly below expectation of 214k. Four-week moving average of initial claims was also unchanged at 214.5k.

                              Continuing claims rose 2k to 1812k in the week ending April 6. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 4k to 1805k.

                              Full US jobless claims release here.

                              Bundesbank highlights modest improvement in German economy with ongoing risks

                                Bundesbank, in its latest monthly report, suggested some improvement in the German economy though underlying weaknesses remain. The report notes, “Germany’s economic situation has brightened somewhat, but it remains weak at its core,” signaling uncertainty about the sustainability of economic growth into the second quarter.

                                Despite these challenges, there has been a noticeable rise in optimism among consumers, businesses, and investors, potentially setting the stage for a stronger economic recovery than previously anticipated. The Bundesbank highlights, “If this improvement continues, the economy could also pick up more significantly than was expected a month ago.”

                                However, the report also points out several areas of concern. Industry continues to struggle, and the construction sector might see a downturn following a temporary boost from a mild winter. Furthermore, high interest rates are suppressing investment activities, and while export demand shows weakness, consumer spending remains restrained despite favorable conditions in the labor market, such as rising wages and slowing inflation.

                                ECB’s de Guindos: We have been crystal clear on June rate cut

                                  During a European Parliament hearing today, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that ECB has been “crystal clear” on its conditional guidance regarding interest rate cut.

                                  “If things continue as they have been evolving lately, in June we’ll be ready to reduce the restriction of our monetary policy stance,” he said.

                                  While financial markets anticipate a total of 75bps in rate cuts for the year, de Guindos remained non-committal about specific future rate levels.

                                  He pointed out several risks to inflation outlook, including wage dynamics, productivity, unit labor costs, profit margins, and geopolitical tensions.

                                  BoJ’s Noguchi: Poicy rate adjustment expected to be slow

                                    BoJ Board Member Asahi Noguchi highlighted in a speech today the unique economic conditions facing Japan compared to other major economies. He pointed out that any changes to the policy rate are expected to occur at a slower pace than those seen in recent actions by other major central banks.

                                    “With regard to the pace of policy rate adjustment, it is expected to be slow, at a pace that cannot be compared to that of other major central banks in recent years,” Noguchi stated. This approach reflects the central bank’s assessment that it will take considerable time for Japan to consistently achieve its price stability target of 2% inflation.

                                    Noguchi also noted the recent significant wage increases in Japan, describing them as unprecedented. However, he cautioned that these wage hikes alone are not yet sufficient to drive up prices to the level needed for trend inflation to stabilize at the 2% target.

                                    “It is essential for the BoJ to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy to seek an appropriate balance in the labour supply-demand,” he added.

                                    Australia NAB business confidence rises to -2 in Q1, cost pressures ease slightly

                                      Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence rose from -6 to -2 in Q1. Business Conditions was unchanged at 10. In terms of forward-looking expectations, businesses anticipate a slight downturn in conditions over the next three months, with expectations dipping from 14 to 12. However, the outlook for the next 12 months improved, rising from 16 to 17.

                                      According to NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster, “Consistent with our monthly business survey, today’s release shows business conditions remained resilient at above-average levels through the start of the year. Confidence remained weak but showed some improvement relative to the tail end of 2023.”

                                      The report also highlighted easing cost pressures, although the reduction was minimal. Labor costs grew at a slightly reduced rate of 1.2%, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter, and purchase costs increased by 1.1%, down from 1.2%. Meanwhile, final product price growth remained steady at 0.7%, and retail price growth decreased marginally to 0.8% from 0.9%.

                                      Oster noted, “There continue to be some positive signs of easing cost pressures for businesses but progress was more incremental through Q1. Importantly, forward-looking indicators of firms’ expectations for price growth suggest firms expect some further moderation.”

                                      Full Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence release here.

                                      Australia’s employment contracts -6.6k in Mar, labor market still relatively tight

                                        Australia’s employment figures for March revealed a slight contraction of -6.6k, worse than expectation of 7.2k growth. This downturn was primarily due to drop in part-time employment by -34.5k, partially offset by rise in full-time by 27.9k.

                                        Unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8%, below expectation of 3.9%. Participation rate fell from 66.7% to 66.6%. Monthly hours worked rose 0.9% mom.

                                        Bjorn Jarvis, Head of Labour Statistics at ABS, noted, “The labour market remained relatively tight in March, with an employment-to-population ratio and participation rate still close to their record highs in November 2023.” He pointed out that although there has been a modest decline of 0.4 percentage points since the highs of last November, the metrics remain substantially above pre-pandemic levels.

                                        Full Australia employment release here.

                                        Fed’s Bowman: Inflation progress has slowed, perhaps even stalled

                                          Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, speaking at an International Institute of Finance conference, remarked that progress on inflation has “slowed” and may have “even stalled at this point”.

                                          Bowman elaborated that the existing levels of growth and market activity might indicate that the current policy stance may not be restrictive enough. “There is a lot of financial market activity and a lot of continued growth that we wouldn’t have expected if policy was sufficiently tight,” she commented, adding, “I think it is restrictive. I think time will tell whether it is sufficiently restrictive.”

                                          Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester also echoed the need for caution before making further policy adjustments. While she remains hopeful that inflation will decrease, Mester emphasized the importance of further data analysis before proceeding with any monetary policy changes. “I still am expecting inflation to come down but I do think that we need to be watching and gathering more information before we take an action,” Mester commented.