Fed Daly: We need to raise rates to bridle the economy more

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly acknowledged that while inflation appears to be slowing, it remains far too elevated. In an interview held at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., Daly indicated the need for further measures to counteract inflationary pressures.

    She affirmed, “I think it’s a very reasonable projection to say a couple of more rate hikes will be necessary.”

    Daly reflected on the resilience of the U.S. economy, which has shown surprising strength despite ongoing economic challenges. The robust data, according to Daly, signal a clear need for intervention: “We need to raise rates to bridle that economy more.”

    “With labor market still strong, inflation high, risks of doing too little are outweighing risks of doing too much,” she added.

    Nevertheless, “It’s appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes.”

    BoE Bailey: My pre-occupation at the moment is inflation

      BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in a speech delivered today, expressed his deep concern over the current inflation rate, which he described as “unacceptably high.”

      Bailey stated, “My pre-occupation at the moment is inflation. Currently at 8.7% in the latest data, consumer price inflation is unacceptably high, and we must bring it down to the 2% target.”

      In response to these inflationary pressures, Bailey highlighted that monetary policy has been tightened. “Over the last twenty months, we have raised Bank Rate by nearly five percentage points,” he said.

      He expressed expectation for underlying inflationary pressures to ease off as headline inflation recedes, adding that “some of that tightening is still to come through the policy pipeline.”

      However, Bailey made it clear that the Monetary Policy Committee remains vigilant, monitoring various economic developments, notably in the labour market, wage growth, and services price inflation, “to assess whether pressures are proving more persistent.”

      Fed Mester signals need for further rate hike, foresees no impending recession

        In a speech delivered today, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed surprise at the resilience shown by the economy which, in her words, “has shown more underlying strength than anticipated earlier this year.” However, Mester also raised concerns regarding the stubbornly high inflation rates, noting that “progress on core inflation [has been] stalling.”

        “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%,” she said, “my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”

        Mester also touched on labor market’s imbalance during reopening, where she noted that “labor demand well outpaced labor supply, putting upward pressure on wages and price inflation.” Although she sees progress in achieving a more balanced situation, she cautioned that “it is slow progress and demand is still outpacing supply.”

        Despite these challenges, Mester revealed a streak of optimism in the business community. She said that most business leaders “think there won’t be a recession this year, and many think that, even if demand slows down some more, a recession will be avoided or will be very mild.”

        Eurozone Sentix fell to -22.5, more serious than usual summer lull

          The economic outlook for Eurozone dimmed as Sentix Investor Confidence Index suffered its third consecutive monthly fall, reaching an eight-month low in July. The index tumbled from -17 to -22.5, significantly underperforming market expectations of -18.9. Both Current Situation Index and Expectations Index followed suit, dropping from -15.8 to -20.5 and from -18.3 to -24.5 respectively.

          Sentix offered a stark assessment of the situation: “As of early July 2023, the Eurozone economy remains in recession mode.” The investment group expressed skepticism about the potential sources of an economic boost, observing the U.S. economy’s struggle to generate positive momentum, while downplaying any hope of central banks stepping in to counteract the economic downturn.

          The investor sentiment towards the central banks’ policies was especially pessimistic, with the topic index “central bank policy” plummeting from -13 to -24, indicating that investors foresee an intensification of restrictive monetary measures.

          Compounding this gloomy outlook, the corresponding Inflation Barometer slid from -6 to -14.5 points, with Sentix cautioning that the current situation is “clearly more serious than the usual summer lull”.

          Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

          BoJ upgrades assessment on three regions, all picking or recovering moderately

            In the Regional Economic Report released today, BoJ painted an encouraging picture of economic recovery. Despite challenges like past spike in commodity prices. All nine regions “had been either picking up or recovering moderately”.

            Moreover, three regions – Tokai, Chugoku, and Kyushu-Okinawa – have received upgrades in their economic outlooks, while the views on Hokkaido, Tohok, Hokuriku, Kanto-Koshinetsu, Kinki, and Shikoku remain unchanged.

            The report also revealed that numerous regions have seen wage increases across small and mid-sized firms broadening to an extent not witnessed in recent years. However, the future of these wage hikes remains uncertain.

            Takeshi Nakajima, BoJ’s branch manager overseeing Kansai western Japan region, underscored this ambiguity, stating that it’s premature to predict if companies will continue raising wages next year. “A lot of companies in the region say that will depend on this year’s earnings and what their rivals could do,” Nakajima said during a news conference.

            He added, “If companies can earn enough revenues to pay for higher wages, there’s hope wage rises will continue. Given uncertainty over the outlook, however, it’s premature to say decisively that this will happen.”

            China’s PPI down -5.4% yoy, CPI flat in Jun

              China’s factory-gate inflation, as measured by PPI, marked its ninth consecutive decline in June, slumping by -5.4% yoy. This drop is the steepest since December 2015 and outstripped -4.6% yoy in May, a well as expectation of -5.0 yoy. PPI fell -0.8% on a month-on-month basis in June, slightly less than the -0.9% mom fall registered in May.

              National Bureau of Statistics statistician Dong Lijuan pointed to tumbling commodity prices, particularly oil and coal, as the driving force behind the slump in factory-gate prices. The comparison to high base figures from the previous year also played a role in the significant drop.

              Additionally, China’s CPI continued to lose momentum, sliding from 0.2% yoy in May to 0.0% yoy in June, its lowest reading since February 2021. This downturn defied expectations of a 0.2% yoy. On a month-on-month basis, June’s CPI mirrored the previous month, dipping by -0.2%.

              Analyzing the CPI’s components, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a tempered 0.4% yoy rise, compared to 0.6% yoy in May. Food prices accelerated by 2.3% yoya leap from May’s 1.0% yoy increase, while non-food prices moved in the opposite direction, falling by -0.6% yoy in contrast to a flat performance in May.

              The sustained descent in PPI, coupled with lackluster CPI, underlines the ongoing deflationary pressures in China’s economy.

              ECB Villeroy said rates nearing a high plateau

                Speaking at a conference in Aix-en-Provence, France, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that Eurozone was nearing the “high point” of interest rates, a level expected to be sustained to allow full transmission of monetary policy effects.

                Villeroy added, “But when I say high point this isn’t a peak, rather it will be a high plateau, on which we will have to remain for a sufficiently long time to fully transmit all the effects of monetary policy.”

                Joining him on the panel was fellow Governing Council member Mario Centeno, who underlined ECB’s focus on headline inflation, noting its more rapid than anticipated decrease. However, he also highlighted the importance of core inflation, which he acknowledged was not dropping as swiftly.

                Centeno stressed, “We target headline inflation, that’s very important. And headline inflation is coming down, actually it’s coming down faster than the way up.”

                Centeno went on to add, “Core inflation stands out as a very important indicator. It’s not coming down as fast as headline inflation, but we also need to remember that in the way up it played exactly the same trajectory. So we need to remain confident too in the way we are fighting inflation.”

                Canada employment up 59.9k in Jun, unemployment rate rose to 5.4%

                  Canada employment rose 59.9k in June, well above expectation of 19.8k. Employment gains in June were all in full-time work (110k), part-time jobs fell (-50k).

                  Employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (33k), manufacturing (27k), health care and social assistance (21k) and transportation and warehousing (10k). Meanwhile, declines were recorded in construction (-14k), educational services (-14k) and agriculture (-6k).

                  Unemployment rate rose from 5.2% to 5.4%, above expectation of 5.3%. There were 1.1m people unemployed in June, an increase of 54k in the month.

                  Average hourly wages rose 4.2% yoy, down from may’s 5.1% yoy.

                  Full Canada employment release here.

                  US NFP grew 209k in Jun, lowest since 2020

                    US non-farm payroll employment grew 209k in June, slightly below expectation of 220k. That’s the lowest level since December 2020. That compares to average of 278k per month over the first 6 months of the year.

                    Unemployment rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.6%, below expectation of being unchanged at 3.7%. Number of unemployed person was little changed at 6m. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 2.6% for the fourth consecutive month.

                    Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.

                    Full US NFP release here.

                    ECB Lagarde warns of simultaneous rise in company profits and wages

                      ECB President Christine Lagarde voiced concerns over lingering inflation risks in a recent interview with Geneviève Van Lède, conducted on July 5.

                      Lagarde noted that while inflation “has started to decline,” it remains “still higher than our medium-term target of 2%,” according to the ECB’s staff projections. The expectation is for it to remain above target in 2024 and 2025, indicating a continued need to work towards reigning in inflation to meet the target.

                      On the economic growth front, Lagarde highlighted that growth “has been flat in the last two quarters.” However, she added, “We estimate euro area growth to be around 0.9% in 2023.” She further asserted that “we should see a return to potential growth over the period 2024-25.”

                      Lagarde also pointed out an interesting development in the context of high inflation. She noted that current period of high inflation did not correspond with a decrease in firms’ profit margins; in fact, margins saw an increase in certain instances, especially where demand for goods and services surpassed supply. Simultaneously, wages have experienced an unexpected rise.

                      In this complex backdrop, Lagarde stressed, “it is important to know whether firms are going to reduce their margins a little to meet their employees’ expectations of higher wages and to restore some of their purchasing power,” a trend typically seen during past inflation episodes.

                      Alternatively, there could be a twofold increase in margins and wages. She warned that a simultaneous increase in both would exacerbate inflation risks, cautioning that “we would not stand idly by in the face of such risks.”

                      Full ECB Lagarde interview here.

                      Bets on two more Fed hikes gaining traction ahead of NFP

                        Financial markets are awaiting with bated breath today’s US non-farm payrolls data, as labor market tightness continues to be a crucial variable in shaping Fed future policy trajectory. Market consensus predicts a healthy growth of 220k jobs in June, while unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 3.70%. Average hourly earnings are projected to see a moderate increase of 0.3% mom.

                        With the backdrop of this week’s related data, risks appear to be tilted towards a positive surprise. ADP reported private employment growth of 497k, which is almost double the anticipated 250k. ISM services employment bounced back from 49.2 to 53.1, while ISM manufacturing employment slipped from 51.4 to 48.1. The robust surge in service sector seems capable of more than compensating for the downturn in manufacturing sector.

                        Ahead of the job report, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 92.4% likelihood of an additional 25 bps hike, which would bring rates to 5.25-5.50% at FOMC meeting in July.

                        Market participants appear to remain somewhat skeptical of FOMC members’ “strong majority” opinion that two or more rate hikes are necessary in 2023. However, probability of more tightening beyond July is gaining traction. Chance of interest rate reaching 5.50-5.75% in November currently stands at 46%.

                        Simultaneously, expectation for the first rate cut continues to be deferred, with odds remaining below 50% until March 2024.

                        Japan’s nominal wages surge, yet real wages and household spending stumble

                          Japanese workers saw their nominal wages surge 2.5% yoy in May, significantly surpassing expected increase of 1.2% yoy. Regular pay, which includes basic salaries, rose by an impressive 1.8% yoy, marking the highest gain since February 1995. Meanwhile, overtime and other non-regular pay saw a modest increase of 0.4% yoy, while special pay including bonuses skyrocketed by 22.2% yoy.

                          However, inflation-adjusted real wage index tells a different story. It dropped by -1.2% yoy in May, marking a 14-month declining streak. The reduction, nonetheless, was less severe than -3.2% yoy drop experienced a month earlier. This appears to mirror the effects of pay raise agreements established during this year’s “shunto” spring labor-management negotiations.

                          Despite these wage increases, separate data revealed that Japanese household spending fell -4.0% yoy in May , outpacing median market forecast for a -2.4% yoy drop. This decline extended for the third month and affected a range of expenses from food to clothing to transportation. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, household spending dipped by -1.1% mom, This represents the fourth consecutive month of decline.

                          BoJ’s Uchida cautions against premature policy shift

                            BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida voiced caution over a hasty shift in monetary policy amid current economic climate. In an interview with Nikkei, Uchida emphasized that Japan was far from needing to hastily raise interest rates.

                            “The risk of missing the opportunity to achieve our 2% target with a premature policy shift is bigger than that of being too late in tightening policy and allowing inflation to continue running above 2%,” Uchida explained.

                            Uchida noted the budding changes in Japanese companies’ behavior, which have been rooted in the country’s deflationary period. He stressed the importance of nurturing these developments with care. However, he cautioned that uncertainty remains high over inflation outlook, including impact of pricing behaviors and wage hikes by companies.

                            “We have not reached a point where we can foresee the 2 percent price stability target can be attained stably and sustainably,” Uchida said. He also recognized the burden placed on households due to more than 2% rise in core CPI, reinforcing the importance of supporting the economy with current monetary easing to stabilize inflation at 2%, in tandem with wage growth.

                            Uchida also touched on foreign exchange rates, noting the unwanted uncertainty caused by Yen’s rapid and one-sided depreciation. He highlighted the importance of stable foreign exchange rates, which should reflect economic and financial fundamentals. “The BOJ will coordinate with the government, and closely monitor developments in the foreign exchange market and their impact on the economy and prices,” he added.

                            Fed Logan advocates for more restrictive monetary policy

                              Dallas President Fed Lorie Logan has voiced concerns about inflation and suggested that a more restrictive monetary policy may be necessary. She indicated that, based on the recent economic data and the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, it would have been fitting to raise the federal funds target range FOMC June meeting.

                              However, Logan pointed out the “challenging and uncertain environment,” arguing that “it can make sense to skip a meeting and move more gradually.”

                              Logan expressed deep concerns about whether inflation will return to target levels in a timely and sustainable manner. She further noted, “the continuing outlook for above-target inflation and a stronger-than-expected labor market calls for more-restrictive monetary policy.”

                              On the notion of a delayed impact from past policy actions, Logan expressed skepticism, saying, “I’m skeptical about the potential for large additional effects from this channel.” This stance challenges the widely held view that policy measures often take time to influence the economy, suggesting the need for swift action in addressing the current economic issues.

                              US ISM services rose to 53.9, corresponds to 1.4% annualized GDP growth

                                US ISM Services PMI rose from 50.3 to 53.9 in June, above expectation of 51.3. Business activity/production jumped from 51.5 to 59.2. New orders rose from 52.9 to 55.5 Employment rose from 49.2 to 53.1. Prices dropped from 56.2 to 54.1.

                                ISM said, “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for June (53.9 percent) corresponds to a 1.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                Full US ISM services release here.

                                US initial jobless claims rose to 248k, slightly below expectation

                                  US initial jobless claims rose 12k to 248k in the week ending July 1, slightly below expectation of 249k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -3.5k to 253k.

                                  Continuing claims dropped -13k to 1720k in the week ending June 24. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -9k to 1747k.

                                  Full US jobless claims release here.

                                  US ADP surged 497k, but wages growth continues to ebb

                                    US ADP private employment grew 497k in June, well above expectation of 250k. By industry, goods-producing jobs increased 124k while service-providing jobs rose 373k. By establishment size, small companies added 299k jobs, medium companies added 183k, large companies cut -8k.

                                    Annual pay growth of job-stayers slowed from 6.6% yoy to 6.4% yoy. For job-changers, pay gains slowed for the 12th straight month to 11.2% yoy, slowest pace since October 2021.

                                    “Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge.”

                                    Full US ADP release here.

                                    Eurozone retail sales flat in May, EU down -0.1% mom

                                      Eurozone retail sales volume was unchanged in May, compared with the prior month. Volume of retail trade decreased by -0.5% mom for food, drinks and tobacco and by -0.3% mom for automotive fuels, while it increased by 0.1% mom for non-food products.

                                      EU retail sales fell -0.1% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (-5.3%), Luxembourg (-4.5%) and Poland (-3.7%). The highest increases were observed in Romania (+3.3%), Portugal (+3.2%) and Sweden (+1.6%).

                                      Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

                                      BoE Bailey can’t tell when interest rates start to come down

                                        In an interview with BBC’s Newsround, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey retrained from providing a definite timeline for potential decreases in interest rates. Instead, he emphasized the necessity of bringing inflation under control.

                                        “I can’t give you a date as to when interest rates start to come down because that really depends upon what happens over the period of time ahead, but getting inflation down is the most important thing that we have to do,” Bailey stated.

                                        Offering a glimmer of optimism, Bailey noted a discernible reduction in inflation. He predicted a noticeable fall in inflation rates and affirmed the bank’s dedication to lowering it to their target level of 2%.

                                        Inflation “has already started to come down and I expect … quite a marked fall in inflation, we’ll notice it. What we have to do is set the interest rate to get it all the way down to 2%,” he expounded.

                                        UK PMI construction fell to 48.9, contracts on rising borrowing costs and weaker housing market

                                          UK’s construction sector faced a downturn in June as PMI fell from 51.6 in May to 48.9, falling short of 50.9 expectation. This marks the first contraction in construction activity in five months, driven primarily by the fastest decline in residential work witnessed in over three years.

                                          Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explained the contraction, stating, “Weaker housing market conditions in the wake of higher borrowing costs acted as a major constraint on UK construction output in June.” According to him, the steep downturn in residential work since May 2020—excluding the slump during lockdown—has been the most rapid in over 14 years.

                                          On a positive note, input prices decreased for the first time since January 2010, a potential silver lining for the construction sector. Additionally, supplier performance improved at its fastest pace in 14 years, signalling some resilience despite the prevailing industry headwinds. However, recent contraction raises concerns about the health of construction sector amidst rising borrowing costs and a cooling housing market.

                                          Full UK PMI construction release here.