HK HSI dives as Yellen visit China amid rising US-China tensions

    Hong Kong HSI is taking a hit today as it gapped down at open and further sell-offs materialized during the initial part of Asian trading session. This market movement mirrors intensifying investor concerns as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen starts a four-day visit to China. While the intention behind Yellen’s visit is to de-escalate potential conflicts between these two economic behemoths, atmosphere has notably soured this week.

    Earlier in the week, China struck a discordant note by announcing fresh restrictions on export of several critical minerals used in manufacture of semiconductors and solar panels. This move appears to be a tit-for-tat response to the tech export limitations that the US has imposed on China, limiting the sale of advanced computer chips. Further adding to the apprehension, US government is reported to be contemplating additional measures to restrict China’s access to US-based cloud computing services.

    On a separate front, China delivered another blow to international diplomatic relations when it abruptly canceled a visit by European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, scheduled for next week, according to an EU spokesperson. The Chinese authorities have not yet disclosed the reasons behind this unexpected cancellation.

    From a technical perspective, today’s market turbulence in Hong Kong, marked by a gap down followed by a sharp drop, appears to validate rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 19428.57). Fall from 20155.92 is likely to be another chapter in the overall descent from 22700.85. As decline progresses, a drop below 18044.85 low is expected. However, substantial support is still expected from 61.8% retracement of 14597.31 to 22700.85 at 17692.86, and this could potentially spur a reversal. Let’s see how it goes.

    Fed Williams: Data support more rate hikes at some point

      New York Fed President John Williams voiced his support for the decision to hold rates steady in June, stating yesterday that it was the right move to allow for further data collection and assessment.

      “We can take some time and assess and collect more information and then be able to act, knowing that we also communicated through our projections that we don’t think we’re done, based on what we know,” he said.

      However, Williams hinted at further rate hikes while he reaffirmed his commitment to be “data dependent” in his decision-making. But he added that recent data “support the idea the Fed may need to raise rates further at some point.”

      Williams’ statements were grounded in ongoing concerns about high core inflation, although he acknowledged the progress made in curtailing inflation so far. He highlighted a slowdown in the inflation of non-housing services prices, a key indicator closely watched by Fed officials. “Even in the category of core services excluding shelter, we’re seeing some slowing of inflation,” he added.

       

      Fed minutes signal disagreement over rate pause

        In a display of internal discord, Fed’s June 13-14 meeting minutes indicate that while most officials deemed it “appropriate or acceptable” to maintain rates at 5% to 5.25% target range, a few would have backed a quarter-point increase.

        “The participants favoring a 25 basis point increase noted that the labor market remained very tight, momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated, and there were few clear signs that inflation was on a path to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over time,” the minutes said.

        Yet, many officials expressed concerns about an accelerated tightening pace. “Many also noted that, after rapidly tightening the stance of monetary policy last year, the Committee had slowed the pace of tightening and that a further moderation in the pace of policy firming was appropriate in order to provide additional time to observe the effects of cumulative tightening and assess their implications for policy,” read the minutes.

        Overall, these June minutes portray a Federal Reserve grappling with the delicate balancing act of controlling inflation while not excessively tightening monetary policy. The diverging views underscore the precarious position the central bank finds itself in as it navigates the complexities of the evolving economic landscape.

        Full FOMC minutes here.

        ECB consumer expectation survey: 1-year inflation expectations fell further

          According to May ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, consumers are indicating a slight easing in their inflation expectations for the near and medium term, while growth expectations stay largely cautious.

          In detail, mean inflation expectations for one year ahead in May stood at 5.1%, dipping from 5.3% in April and significantly lower than March’s 6.3%. Median inflation expectations for the same period also saw a decline, registering at 3.9% in May, compared to 4.1% in April and 5.0% in March.

          Furthermore, consumers’ mean inflation expectations for three years ahead were at 4.0% in May, a slight increase from April’s 3.8%, yet still lower than March’s 4.3%. The median inflation expectations for the same term remained steady at 2.5% for both May and April, below March’s 2.9%.

          On the growth front, mean expectations for economic expansion over the next 12 months saw a slight uptick, registering at -0.7% in May, compared to -0.8% in April and -1.0% in March. Meanwhile, the median economic growth expectation for the next 12 months held steady at 0% for May, unchanged from April and March.

          Full ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results here.

          Eurozone PPI down -1.9% mom, -1.5% yoy in May

            Eurozone PPI was down -1.9% mom, -1.5% yoy in May, versus expectation of -1.8% mom, -1.3% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices decreased by -5.0% mom in the energy sector, by -1.0% mom for intermediate goods and by -0.1% mom for non-durable consumer goods, while prices remained stable for capital goods and increased by 0.3% mom for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by -0.4% mom.

            EU PPI was down -1.8% mom, -0.5% yoy. The largest monthly decreases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Ireland (-7.4%), Italy (-3.1%) and Finland (-3.0%), while increases were observed in Cyprus (+2.8%), and Malta (+0.4%).

            Full Eurozone PPI release here.

            UK PMI services finalized at 53.7, showing renewed signs of fragility

              UK’s Service sector displayed signs of vulnerability in June, according to recent PMI readings. PMI Services reading was finalized at 53.7, a slight downturn from May’s 55.2, while Composite PMI eased to 52.8, down from 54.0 in May.

              Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “The service sector showed renewed signs of fragility in June as rising interest rates and concerns about the UK economic outlook took their toll on customer demand.” He pointed out that business activity saw the slowest expansion in three months, and rate of new order growth slid further from the peak recorded in April.

              Despite the tepid pace of activity, Moore observed that labor market conditions remained relatively buoyant. He highlighted that job creation reached a nine-month high, with an improvement in candidate availability enabling firms to fill vacancies and rebuild business capacity.

              On the price front, service providers experienced deceleration in overall input price inflation. Business expenses climbed at the most modest pace since May 2021. Nonetheless, cost pressures ranked among the most substantial seen since the survey began in July 1996. Salary payments continued to surge across the board, offsetting the decline in fuel bills and energy prices. This situation underscores the ongoing challenge of inflationary pressures in the UK economy.

              Full UK PMI Services release here.

              Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 49.9, all major euro countries lost considerable momentum

                Eurozone Services PMI was finalized at a 5-month low at 52.0 from May’s 55.1, while Composite PMI was finalized at a 6-month low at 49.9, down from May’s 52.8.

                Exploring some member states’ performance, a general slowdown was observed with Spain hitting a 5-month low at 52.6, Ireland at a 6-month low with 51.4, Germany at a 5-month low at 50.6, Italy hitting a 6-month low with 49.7, and France, with the most significant contraction, at a 28-month low of 47.2.

                Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that “all major euro countries have again lost considerable momentum.” Slowdown was accompanied by weaker rise in new business, lower price increases, and decline in business expectations.” Neertheless, job creation remained roughly as solid as in the previous month

                While price pressure in the services sector, a key point of focus for ECB, has somewhat eased, de la Rubia cautioned that input costs are still rising robustly by historical standards. This is forcing service firms to pass on at least some of these cost increases, partially driven by higher wages, to end customers. The resulting stubbornly high core inflation suggests that the ECB may continue hiking policy rates in response.

                Full Eurozone PMI Services release here.

                WTI oil hovers in range on divided interpretation of output cut

                  Despite an early-week upswing, oil prices have struggled to extend gains and remain bounded within a familiar range. Saudi Arabia announced extension of its voluntary output cut. Russia and Algeria offered to trim their August output and exports. But these decisions are more seen as a sign affirming a waning optimism in demand growth.

                  Technically, outlook in WTI crude oil is rather mixed for now. Repeated rejection by 55 D EMA is retaining bearishness. Yet there is no clear sign of extended selling.

                  Indeed, recent price actions could be interpreted as a triangle pattern that started in 74.74. If that’s true, there is prospect of another bounce to resume the rebound from 63.67. Break of 72.57 resistance will solidify this case and push WTI through 74.74 resistance. Yet, upside would likely be capped by 100% projection of 63.67 to 74.74 from 66.94 at 78.01.

                  On the other hand, break of 66.94 support could prompt deeper selloff back to retest 63.67 low.

                  China Caixin PMI services fell to 53.9, recovery losing steam

                    China’s Caixin Services PMI for June plunged to 53.9, down from 57.1 in the previous month and significantly below the expectation of 56.2. The composite PMI also tumbled from 55.6 to a discouraging 52.5, marking the lowest readings since the growth cycle kick-started in January.

                    Wang Zhe, a senior economist at the Caixin Insight Group, commented on the less-than-promising data: “A slew of recent economic data suggests that China’s recovery has yet to find a stable footing, with prominent issues including a lack of internal growth drivers, weak demand, and dimming prospects persisting.”

                    Zhe emphasized the disparity between the manufacturing and services sectors, noting that “In June, Caixin China PMIs showed that conditions in the manufacturing sector lagged far behind services. Employment contracted, deflationary pressure mounted, and optimism waned in the manufacturing sector.”

                    Despite the ongoing post-Covid rebound of the services sector, Zhe expressed concerns about the sustainability of the recovery, adding that “the services sector continued a post-Covid rebound, but the recovery was losing steam.”

                    Full China Caixin PMI services release here.

                    AUD/NZD dips after RBA, but holding above 1.0795 temp low

                      Australian Dollar dips broadly after RBA’s hold, but loss is so far limited. AUD/NZD is staying above 1.0795 temporary low for now, even though near term bearish bias is maintained after prior rejection by 55 4H EMA.

                      Current fall in AUD/NZD from 1.1050 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.1085 for now. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.0920 resistance holds. Break of 1.0795 will target 1.0056 support and possibly below. But in that case, buying should emerge above 1.0469 support to finish the fall from 1.1050, as well as the pattern from 1.1085.

                      RBA holds cash rate steady, further tightening may be in the offing

                        RBA keeps cash rate target at 4.10% today, leaving room for further evaluation of the economic landscape. However, the central bank’s statement hinted at the possible need for further tightening of monetary policy in the future.

                        The statement noted, “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe,” with the stipulation that this would be dependent on how the economy and inflation evolve.

                        The bank justifies its decision to keep rates unchanged, stating it “provides the Board with more time to assess the state of the economy and the economic outlook and associated risks.”

                        The statement highlighted concerns over the risk of persistent high inflation leading to broader increases in both prices and wages. This concern is heightened due to the limited spare capacity in the economy coupled with a very low unemployment rate.

                        In response to these potential inflationary pressures, RBA pledged vigilance, stating it “will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.”

                        Full RBA statement here.

                        US ISM manufacturing fell to 46, all sub indexes below 50

                          US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 46.9 to 46.0 in June, below expectation of 47.2. Looking at some details, production fell from 51.1 to 46.7. Employment fell from 51.4 to 48.1. Prices fell from 44.2 to -2.4. New orders rose from 42.6 to 45.6, but stay below 50.

                          The headline reading indicates that the manufacturing sector is in the eighth month of contraction. None of the 10 subindexes were above 50 percent for the period. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the June reading (46 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-1 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” ISM said.

                          Full ISM manufacturing release here.

                          Bundesbank Nagel: ECB still has a way to go with tightening

                            Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel acknowledged the rising doubt and escalating criticism around the necessity for more rate hikes. Yet, he insisted on the need for further tightening. He attributed his stance to the robust health of the labor market and the positive growth in the economy.

                            “We still have a way to go,” Nagel stated, referring to the ECB’s inflation-fighting measures. “Monetary policy signals are clearly pointing in the direction of more tightening”.

                            Furthermore, Nagel voiced his advocacy for the significant reduction of the Eurosystem’s balance sheet in the forthcoming years, following its expansion due to massive bond purchases and bank loans.

                            UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.5, continued to report recessionary conditions

                              UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.5 in June, down from May’s 47.1, a six-month low. S&P Global noted that output fell in intermediate and investment goods sectors. Input prices and output charges both fell.

                              Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

                              “The UK manufacturing sector continued to report recessionary conditions in June. The headline PMI dropped to a six-month low as output, new orders and employment all suffered further declines. Producers are being hit by weak domestic and export market conditions with clients showing a greater reluctance to commit to spending due to market uncertainty, increased competition and elevated costs. This is also impacting business optimism and stoking fears among some manufacturers that client spending may shift to lower cost rivals and markets.

                              “Although some respite is being offered in the short-term by reduced pressures on supply chains and costs, these remain a symptom of the current weakness of demand faced by the sector and are therefore unlikely to play a role in boosting production moving forward. Manufacturers therefore remain in defence mode, looking to cut back spending on purchasing and employment wherever possible and release capital tied up in stocks.”

                              Full UK PMI manufacturing release here.

                              Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 43.4, reacting negatively to ECB hikes

                                The final Eurozone PMI Manufacturing reading for June marked a further descent to 43.4, compared to May’s 44.8 – a slump to a low not seen in 37 months. The PMI Manufacturing Output Index also ended lower at 44.2, an 8-month low from May’s 46.4.

                                The decline wasn’t restricted to a single nation, but spread across several member states, demonstrating widespread economic pressure. Greece was a rare positive outlier, reaching a two-month high at 51.8. In contrast, Spain slid to a 6-month low at 48.0, while Ireland plummeted to a 37-month low at 47.3. France achieved a slight uptick to a 3-month high of 46.0, while Netherlands, Italy, and Germany dipped to 37- and 38-month lows. Austria reached the lowest level, falling to a 38-month low at 39.0.

                                Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, articulated the stark economic picture: “Eurozone manufacturing production contracted for the third month in a row in June…with the rate of decline accelerating, pointing to a worsening of factory conditions.”

                                He also pointed to the negative reaction of the capital-intensive industrial sector to the ECB’s interest rate hikes. For the first time since January 2021, surveyed companies reported a reduction in their headcount. Additionally, purchasing activity declined at one of the most severe rates on record. As demand weakened and costs deflated rapidly, companies cut their sales prices for the second consecutive month.

                                On a slightly brighter note, de la Rubia noted the continued normalization of delivery times since February, but cautioned that material shortages remain a persisting issue.

                                Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing release here.

                                Swiss CPI slowed to 1.7% yoy in Jun, imported products down -0.1% yoy

                                  Swiss CPI rose 0.1% mom in Jun, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) was flat mom. Domestic products prices rose 0.2%. Imported products prices dropped -0.3% mom.

                                  For the 12 month period, CPI slowed from 2.2% yoy to 1.7% yoy, below expectation of 1.8% yoy. Core CPI ticked down from 1.9% yoy to 1.8% yoy. Domestic products inflation dropped from 2.4% yoy to 2.3% yoy. Import products inflation turned negative from 1.4% yoy to -0.1% yoy.

                                  Full Swiss CPI release here.

                                  China Caixin PMI manufacturing dipped to 50.5, dire job market, deflationary pressure, waning optimism

                                    China’s Caixin PMI Manufacturing for June recorded a slight decline from 50.9 in May to 50.5. slightly above expectation of 50.2. Caixin indicated that while output marginally increased, demand growth remained modest. Meanwhile, input prices experienced their sharpest decline since January 2016, and business confidence sank to an eight-month low.

                                    Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, summed up the situation: “Manufacturing activity growth suffered a marginal slowdown.”

                                    “A slew of recent economic data suggests that China’s recovery has yet to find a stable footing, as prominent issues including a lack of internal growth drivers, weak demand and dimming prospects remain,” Wang added.

                                    “Problems reflected in June’s Caixin China manufacturing PMI, ranging from an increasingly dire job market to rising deflationary pressure and waning optimism, also point to the same conclusion.”

                                    Full China Caixin PMI manufacturing release here.

                                    Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.8, fractional deterioration in the sector

                                      Japan’s Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 49.8 in June, a downturn from May’s 50.6, according to au Jibun Bank. The reading fell just short of the neutral 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, indicating a slight decline in the health of the nation’s manufacturing sector.

                                      The report also highlighted that both output and new orders regressed, while supplier performance showed the most significant improvement since March 2016. Input prices increased at the slowest pace observed in the past 28 months.

                                      Usamah Bhatti of S&P Global Market Intelligence noted, “The latest data pointed to a fractional deterioration in the Japanese manufacturing sector at the midpoint of 2023.”

                                      However, the slackening in demand and output conditions had a double-edged effect. On one hand, pressure on supply chains eased in June, with average lead times shortening for the second successive month. Simultaneously, easing pressure on supply chains also alleviated inflationary pressures, driving the Input Prices Index to a 28-month low.

                                      Full Japan PMI manufacturing release here.

                                      BoJ’s Tankan survey indicates renewed confidence amongst Japanese businesses

                                        BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey for Q2 has pointed to an uptick in confidence among the Japanese businesses, surpassing market expectations.

                                        Large manufacturing index, a key barometer of Japan’s industrial sector, saw an impressive rise from a two-year low of 1 to 5, outperforming the market expectation of 3. This level marks the highest index value since Q4 of 2022, signifying a considerable rebound in sentiment within the manufacturing sector.

                                        Similarly, large non-manufacturing index advanced from 20 to 23, again exceeding market forecasts of 22. This development signals the highest reading since Q2 2019, reflecting a resurgence in confidence within the broader service sector.

                                        Looking forward, outlook for large manufacturers also leaped from 3 to 9, beating market predictions of 5. However, the outlook for large non-manufacturing firms was slightly below expectations at 20, compared to an anticipated figure of 21.

                                        On the capital expenditure front, large firms plan to ramp up their outlays by a notable 13.4% in the current fiscal year ending March 2024, dwarfing the 3.2% increase projected in the Q1 survey.

                                        Interestingly, the Tankan survey also revealed that companies foresee inflation hitting 2.6% a year from now, a slight pullback from the 2.8% projection made in March. Looking further ahead, inflation expectations stand at 2.2% for three years’ time, a slight reduction from March figure of 2.3%, while projection for inflation five years from now remains stable at 2.1%.

                                        US PCE price index slowed to 3.8% yoy, core PCE down to 4.6% yoy

                                          US personal income rose 0.4% mom, or USD 91.2B, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.1% mom, or USD 18.9B, below expectation of 0.2% mom.

                                          Headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.5% mom. PCE core (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Goods prices fell -0.4% mom while services price rose 0.2% mom. Food prices rose 0.1% mom. Energy prices fell -3.9% mom.

                                          From the same month one year ago, headline PCE price index slowed from 4.3% yoy to 3.8% yoy, below expectation of 4.6% yoy. PCE core (excluding food and energy) ticked down from 4.7% yoy to 4.6% yoy, matched expectations. Goods prices rose 1.1% yoy while services prices jumped 5.3% yoy. Food prices rose 5.8% yoy and energy prices decreased -13.4% yoy.

                                          Full US personal income and outlays release here.